Election: Midterms punish president’s party

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The president’s party usually loses House seats during the midterm election, as has happened in all but three of the last 23 midterms. Since 1922, the president’s party has lost an average of 30 seats in midterm elections. It is unlikely that the Democrats will be a rare exception in this election.

In the graphic below, the tail of the arrow starts at the House majority for the year the president was elected. The head of the arrow ends at the House majority two years later, for the midterm election.

The arrow for President Barack Obama’s second term is predicted to be somewhere in this gray arrow, which shows the range that corresponds to Democrats winning all of the tossup seats or losing all of the tossup seats.

Seat advantage by President’s political party and size of midterm seat-shift 1922-2014

Click on a row to sort

Democratic presidents

Midterm year	election year	President	president party	House majority	Seat shift		id
1934	1936	Roosevelt	dem	DEM	8		05
1998	2000	Clinton	dem	REP	3		03
1962	1964	Kennedy	dem	DEM	4		04
1978	1980	Carter	dem	DEM	13		06
1950	1952	Truman	dem	DEM	28		07
1942	1944	Roosevelt	dem	DEM	45		08
1966	1968	Johnson	dem	DEM	47		09
1994	1996	Clinton	dem	REP	52		10
1946	1948	Truman	dem	REP	56		11
2010	2012	Obama	dem	REP	65		12
1938	1940	Roosevelt	dem	DEM	72		13
2014	2012	Obama	dem	REP			14

Republican presidents

Midterm year	election year	President	president party	House majority	Seat shift		id
2002	2004	W. Bush	rep	REP	9		18
1986	1988	Reagan	rep	DEM	4		16
1990	1992	H.W. Bush	rep	DEM	5		17
1926	1928	Coolidge	rep	REP	9		19
1970	1972	Nixon	rep	DEM	13		20
1954	1956	Eisenhower	rep	DEM	19		21
1982	1984	Reagan	rep	DEM	27		22
2006	2008	W. Bush	rep	DEM	31		23
1974	1976	Ford	rep	DEM	49		24
1958	1960	Eisenhower	rep	DEM	51		25
1930	1932	Hoover	rep	REP	52		26
1922	1924	Harding	rep	REP	77		27

Note: For two of the last 23 midterms a vice president has assumed the presidency between the presidential election and the midterm election: Truman became president after Roosevelt’s fourth election and death, and Ford became president after Nixon’s second election and resignation.

Republicans are widely expected to retain control of the House of Representatives, and history would dictate that they will add to their majority.

Predictions for the U.S. house this election

Democrats

Strong

Likely

Leaning

Republicans

Strong

Likely

Leaning

Tossups

Sources: House of Representatives, Cook Political Report

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