Twenty-five years after the unforgettable Tiananmen Square demonstrations, people in China are again massing in support of democracy and human rights, in defiance of the government in Beijing.
Thousands of people in Hong Kong have turned out in recent days protesting against the regime’s reversal of its promise to let them choose their own leader by 2017. Police use of tear gas and nightsticks on largely peaceful activists not only failed to curb the display but brought out more sympathizers.
For years, the central government has let Hong Kong enjoy a great deal of autonomy — including annual marches for democracy that would never be tolerated elsewhere in the country. Under a formula known as “one country, two systems,” the former British colony, when transferred to China in 1997, was given a promise that it could maintain its Western-style system for at least 50 years.
When the change occurred, many people doubted China’s forbearance. But the government has generally respected the island area’s special status. It has had good reasons to do so. One is that Hong Kong is the richest place in the country, and the government doesn’t want to endanger its prosperity. Another is that by showing tolerance in Hong Kong, it hopes to encourage the people of Taiwan to support reunification under the Beijing government.
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But when it came time to establish rules for the next election for chief executive of Hong Kong, the authorities decided that too much democracy was a bad idea. They insisted that all candidates be approved by a committee effectively controlled by Beijing.
Many Hong Kong residents took that requirement as a slap in the face, and these demonstrations are just the latest expression of resentment. The protesters are demanding the revocation of the election plan as well as the resignation of the current chief executive.
The regime portrays the uprising as a sinister attack on China. It called the protesters “a gang of people whose hearts belong to colonial rule” and warned other nations not to “support the illegal activities.” But it’s clear that the movement is entirely homegrown. Hong Kongers are known as practical people who understand the limits of their autonomy. That so many would take personal and professional risks to oppose the government is a measure of how far they feel they have been pushed.
Chinese President Xi Jinping has shown no willingness to open up space for political debate, and the government’s response to these events has been to stamp out any mention of the protests on social media. The government suffers from a nagging fear that demands for democracy in Hong Kong could spread to the rest of the country.
But Xi faces a painful dilemma. The more forcible the response from authorities, the greater the likelihood of deep alienation between Beijing and the people of Hong Kong. Should Xi resort to a brutal crackdown, he will severely undermine the government’s standing with them. He will also provoke a strong negative reaction in Taiwan.
A wiser approach is to encourage the resignation of the chief executive, back off the unpopular election plan and stick to the promise of letting Hong Kongers choose their leader. The experience since 1997 shows that China’s system of government can survive despite the existence of one place that follows more liberal rules.
Beijing has retreated before in the face of Hong Kong demonstrations, in 2003, without undue loss of face. If it elects to smash the protests, it runs the risk of much greater self-inflicted harm.
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