Last week: 12-2. Season: 81-51.
Sunday’s games
Falcons (8-0) at Saints (3-5), noon
Line: Falcons by 2. Over/under: 53.
Where’s Falcons’ impressive victory? It could come here, seeing as Saints have won three of four. Mike Smith’s teams are 31-14 against spread as favorite.
Pick: Falcons 31, Saints 28.
Lions (4-4) at Vikings (5-4), noon, WFLD-Ch. 32
Line: Lions by 2. Over/under: 47.
Lions have located running game, and everybody is running on Vikings lately. Vikings have given up an average of 165.8 yards on ground over last month.
Pick: Lions 27, Vikings 24.
Giants (6-3) at Bengals (3-5) noon
Line: Giants by 4. Over/under: 48.
Andy Dalton and A.J. Green can do some damage, but only if Bengals can protect Dalton — and they haven’t. Won’t be any easier against Giants defensive front.
Pick: Giants 30, Bengals 20.
Raiders (3-5) at Ravens (6-2), noon
Line: Ravens by 7. Over/under: 46.
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Bucs’ Doug Martin torched Raiders on Sunday, and they won’t find run-stopping much easier against Ray Rice. What’s more, they’re on road.
Pick: Ravens 27, Raiders 20.
Broncos (5-3) at Panthers (2-6), noon, WBBM-Ch. 2
Line: Broncos by 3. Over/under: 47.
Panthers have played well against good teams, nearly beating Falcons and Bears on road. Panthers have good pass defense, but Broncos should be able to run.
Pick: Broncos 24, Panthers 21.
Titans (3-6) at Dolphins (4-4), noon
Line: Dolphins by 6. Over/under: 44.
Three years ago, after Patriots thrashed Titans 59-0, they bounced back with big win. Different team (mostly), but same result.
Pick: Titans 24, Dolphins 21.
Bills (3-5) at Patriots (5-3), noon
Line: Patriots by 11. Over/under: 51.
Patriots have beaten Bills 11 straight at Gillette Stadium, and Tom Brady is 19-2 against them. That said, Patriots can’t fall asleep here.
Pick: Patriots 31, Bills 24.
Chargers (4-4) at Buccaneers (4-4), noon
Line: Bucs by 3. Over/under: 47.
Chargers’ stout run defense a little softer lately. That’s not good news when they’re coming across country to face red-hot RB Doug Martin.
Pick: Bucs 28, Chargers 24.
Jets (3-5) at Seahawks (5-4), 3:05 p.m.
Line: Seahawks by 6. Over/under: 38.
Seahawks are far tougher at home than on road, and rookie QB Russell Wilson has 120.0 passer rating at CenturyLink. They should cover here.
Pick: Seahawks 24, Jets 14.
Cowboys (3-5) at Eagles (3-5), 3:25 p.m., WFLD-Ch. 32
Line: Cowboys by 1. Over/under: 44.
Only NFC team with worse turnover differential than Eagles (minus-9) are Cowboys (minus-11). Question: Which team can shoot itself most effectively in foot?
Pick: Cowboys 24, Eagles 21.
Rams (3-5) at 49ers (6-2), 3:25 p.m.
Line: 49ers by 11. Over/under: 38.
49ers are rested after off week and have won four of five, allowing 0, 3, 6 and 3 points in those victories. Rams have forced just two fumbles all season.
Pick: 49ers 21, Rams 13.
Texans (7-1) at Bears (7-1), 7:20 p.m., WMAQ-Ch. 5
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Line: Bears by 1. Over/under: 41.
Texans are a machine — league lows in turnovers and sacks allowed (tied). But nobody is hotter than Bears’ defense, and Bears are home.
Pick: Bears 21, Texans 20.
Monday’s game
Chiefs (1-7) at Steelers (5-3), 7:30 p.m., ESPN
Line: Steelers by 12. Over/under: 43.
Steelers suddenly have running game, an efficient offensive line and defense that’s playing well in fourth quarter. The Chiefs? They have eight games left.
Pick: Steelers 35, Chiefs 10.