Some would suggest my own family did its part in corrupting me many years ago. Nonsense, I say.
My Grandpa George was trying to teach me a valuable lesson: Take the points.
The old boy plucked a quarter off of me for taking the Colts in Super Bowl III. In the first Super Bowl I remember, I played the chalk. I lost. The Jets, 18-point underdogs, spilled the Colts 16-7 at the Orange Bowl.
Sunday is another chance for me to ignore Grandpa’s advice. I’m investing (gambling is such a dirty word) in the Packers and laying the 2 1/2. It’s not a five-star play, but I can’t pick against the Packers after watching them in their playoff road wins over the Eagles, Falcons and Bears.
I don’t see the Steelers, likely without center Maurkice Pouncey, handling the interior of the Packers’ hell-bent-for-leather defense. B.J. Raji is a very active nose man – ask Caleb Hanie – in Dom Capers’ 3-4 scheme, and Green Bay will bring additional pressure with its linebackers and cornerback Charles Woodson.
Packers 24, Steelers 13.
The propositional wagers, however, are what get my endorphins popping on Super Bowl Sunday.
I’ve never played heads/tails on the coin toss or the over/under on the singing of the national anthem. I won’t plunk down on which songs the Black Eyed Peas perform at halftime, primarily because I don’t know anything other than “Let’s Get It Started.”
My tradition is to invest in one player from each team to be the first to score a touchdown. I usually move on the long shots, although Mike Alstott, at 6-1, was the only winner I’ve nailed on this prop when the Buccaneers thumped the Raiders nine years ago.
You can imagine how bittersweet it was four years ago when Devin Hester returned the opening kickoff for a score in the Bears’ loss to the Colts. I put a dollar (that’s $100 for the uninitiated) on the Clarks, Desmond and Dallas. Seconds into the game, I’m down $220, which includes “the juice.”
I like the value prices on the quarterbacks Sunday in Dallas. Ben Roethlisberger and Aaron Rodgers both are 14-1. Both are effective on their feet, and Big Ben is essentially a fullback in short yardage. Packers fullback John Kuhn is 12-1.
My choices, however, are Packers wide receiver Jordy Nelson (14-1) and Steelers third-down specialist Mewelde Moore (28-1). Odd things happen in these games. Chicago’s very own Howard Griffith, who had only four carries the entire season, barreled in for the first touchdown in the Broncos’ easy win over the Falcons in Super Bowl XXXIII.
Since I’m picking the Packers because of their defense, I’m passing on taking a player from both teams to be the first to record a sack. Put me down for favorite Clay Matthews and Sam Shields, who was terrific in the NFC championship game against the Bears.
And don’t all roads seemingly lead back to the Bears. The “first sack” wager remained alive until the middle of the third quarter in Super Bowl XLI. That’s when the Colts’ Anthony “Booger” McFarland touched a fallen Rex Grossman to end the suspense.
Still very much in the game and facing second-and-one, the great Ron Turner had Grossman throwing instead of handing the ball to Thomas Jones, thus moving the chains and keeping Peyton Manning off the field. Grossman tripped, putting the Bears in third-and-long and bumping my losses another $220.
More Top Picks Gaming
I had Cato June and Alex Brown.
If you’re confident in a double-digit win, and I am, you can play “slot wagers” on the number of points by which your team wins. The payoff grows as the slots grow. I got paid once on this prop, when the Broncos mashed the Falcons 34-19. In the 14-19 points slot, my Broncos play paid 5-1.
There are Super Bowl prop wagers that merge the worlds of college hoops, the NBA, even the PGA Tour. You can bet on pretty much anything in this game.
And I’ll be knee-deep in a lot of it. I’ve earned it. After a bumpy December window run, I stayed off almost every bowl game, didn’t chase in the playoffs and have 20 percent of my annual football investment budget left in my pocket.
At least I listened to Grandpa George about that. Don’t bet what you can’t afford to lose. He also told me never to smoke a non-filtered cigarette.
It’s good to have been raised by such a mindful family.
Dan McNeil hosts the “Danny Mac Show” from 9 a.m. to 1 p.m. weekdays on WSCR-AM 670.