They will seek history Wednesday at Iowa, these Northwestern Wildcats who have been dubbed America’s Team (by deadspin.com) and have gotten serious pub from Sports Illustrated and espn.com.
A victory would match the program’s all-time regular-season high of 17 set in 1982-83 and 2008-09.
But Northwestern (16-7, 5-6 Big Ten) hopes a victory total in the 20s merely provides a vehicle for its larger goal — to dance in March.
NU coach Bill Carmody said Monday he believes a 10-8 mark in Big Ten play would keep its tournament bubble from bursting. Assuming a victory over Chicago State, that would get the Wildcats to 22-9 heading into the Big Ten tournament.
Those numbers are pretty, but analyst Jerry Palm of collegerpi.com said these matter more: Northwestern is 1-5 against the RPI top 50 and 2-2 against the top 50-100. Every other NU victory has come against teams that are, at best, on the fringes of respectability.
“They have played a bad schedule, so it’s an uphill climb,” Palm said. “If all they have is the one win over Purdue, they ain’t gonna make it.”
Said espn.com “bracketologist” Joe Lunardi: “Every Sunday night, I rank every team that’s possible for consideration based on the criteria that the [NCAA] selection committee uses. I had 86 teams on my board Sunday, and Northwestern was not one of them.”
Only one remaining opponent, Wisconsin, is in the RPI top 50. And the Wildcats have to play the Badgers on Feb. 21 in Madison, where visitors rarely win.
The RPIs of their other foes range from mediocre to hideous: Iowa (191) twice, Minnesota (61), Penn State (228) twice, Chicago State (345 out of 347!) and Indiana (223).
“Their chances have mostly come and gone,” Lunardi said. “I root for underdogs like everyone, but this is not the year to buy Northwestern stock.
More Top Picks Best Air Fryer Ovens
“This is as nicely as I can say it: I have a better chance of getting a date with Scarlett Johansson than Northwestern does of making the NCAA tournament.”
NU’s current RPI of 66 is one behind — gulp — Kent State, which has an identical 16-7 record. And it’s only one spot ahead of 14-8 New Mexico State.
Over the last five seasons, the worst RPI from a Big Ten team that made the tournament was 45 — Wisconsin last season and Purdue in 2007-08.