Ones to watch in 2010

Irene Rosenfeld

Title: Chief executive of Kraft Foods Inc.

Why we are watching: Rosenfeld has staked her legacy at Northfield-based Kraft on a $16 billion-plus bid for Cadbury PLC. The British confectionary giant would be a welcome addition to Kraft, juicing sales growth and giving it a bigger international footprint. But Rosenfeld’s Cadbury play is fraught with risk: When big deals go bad, they become big failures.

Kraft, the world’s second-largest packaged-food company, so far has little to show for its efforts. Since Kraft went public with the bid in early September, Cadbury’s board has steadfastly dismissed it as a lowball affair. The deal has gone hostile, with Kraft taking its offer straight to Cadbury shareholders, but they haven’t seemed too impressed so far either.

Meanwhile, Kraft’s biggest shareholder, investor extraordinaire Warren Buffett, turned up the heat on Rosenfeld last week, issuing a public warning of sorts on Cadbury. Buffett is worried Kraft wants Cadbury so badly that it will overpay. Kraft pledges it will maintain its discipline. Rosenfeld will be tested, particularly if a rival food-maker — notably Hershey Co. — submits a competing bid.

— Mike Hughlett

Juan Ochoa

Title: Chief executive, Metropolitan Pier and Exposition Authority, the state/city agency that owns and operates McCormick Place and Navy Pier

Why we are watching: Major trade shows are leaving town, screaming that costs are too high, particularly in these recessionary times. Mayor Richard Daley wants McCormick Place to cut exhibitor costs, and he wants it to happen quickly. Business leaders are suggesting the whole operation should be privatized.

All of which leaves Ochoa on one of the hottest seats in town. Not only does he need to calm exhibitor outrage over costs, including those associated with the in-house electrical service, restrictive labor union work rules and the center’s exclusive food-service provider, but he needs to find ways to trim an operating deficit and persuade Illinois legislators to let the agency restructure its crushing debt schedule.

Appointed in 2007 by then-Gov. Rod Blagojevich, Ochoa makes $195,000 a year, the same salary that has been in place for more than a decade. But in recognition of the agency’s dire straits, he has chosen not to take additional deferred compensation, which typically adds about $35,000 a year to the CEO’s compensation package.

“If we are going to ask people to take sacrifices, it clearly has to start with me,” he said.

With the spotlight on the city’s trade show business, “we have a unique opportunity to change the business model,” he said. “I think the mayor and governor will step up to the plate … and help us change the course of the ship.”

A legislative agenda is expected to be announced Monday.

— Kathy Bergen

Glenn Tilton

Title: Chairman and chief executive of United Airlines

Why we are watching: Will 2010 be the year Tilton finally pulls off a merger?

By combining many operations with Continental Airlines, the United Airlines CEO has positioned his carrier for a tie-up with Continental that would create the world’s largest airline.

“In 2010, the big story is going to be industry consolidation,” said analyst Julius Maldutis, who is bullish on the prospects of a United-Continental union.

United and Continental have moved airport gates closer at O’Hare Airport and elsewhere, and they share IT platforms, frequent-flier plans and even revenues on flights across the Atlantic, thanks to a new joint venture. The two carriers have requested antitrust immunity for a similar partnership across the Pacific with Japan’s All Nippon Airways.

New Continental CEO Jeff Smisek has said he would consider a deal if Delta Air Lines poses an outsized threat after acquiring Northwest Airlines. If Delta successfully woos Japan Air Lines to form the biggest trans-Pacific partnership, Smisek may have all the proof he needs.

— Julie Johnsson

Jim McNerney

Title: President, chairman and chief executive of Boeing Co.

Why we are watching: The news has been so bad for so long at Boeing Co. that Wall Street doesn’t know what to make of recent positive developments.

McNerney’s stock should be rising now that one of two badly delayed aircraft, Boeing’s 787 Dreamliner, is finally flying and the other, the 747-8 jumbo jet, is expected to be in the air before the end of the month. Boeing also appears to be the front-runner to win a $37 billion contract to supply the U.S. Air Force with airborne tankers.

But the string of nasty surprises over the past two years has some wondering what will go wrong next. There’s plenty to worry about as the Dreamliner goes through intensive flight-testing this year, from its weight to its ability to safely absorb lightning strikes.

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Although naysayers think another delay is likely, McNerney insists the first Dreamliner will be delivered to All Nippon Airways late this year, as promised.

Boeing appears to be unraveling the production snarls that have pushed the 787 years off schedule. But McNerney will face the consequences if another major setback throws the program off course.

— Julie Johnsson

Scott Freidheim

Title: Executive vice president, operating and support businesses, Sears Holdings Corp.

Why we are watching: Edward Lampert, the billionaire hedge fund manager, calls the shots as the company’s chairman and its majority shareholder. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t other executives worth watching.

Among the latest crop: Scott Freidheim, the son of former Sun-Times Media Group Inc. CEO Cyrus Freidheim Jr. and the right-hand man to former Lehman Brothers CEO Richard Fuld.

Freidheim’s plum job as Fuld’s chief administrative assistant evaporated when the investment bank collapsed in the fall of 2008. A few months later, Lampert found a spot for the fellow Greenwich, Conn., resident at Sears. He created the post for Freidheim as head of operating and support businesses and made the Lehman refugee one of the retailer’s highest-paid executives.

While Sears is struggling to find the right formula, Lampert’s interests remain in deal-making, which makes Freidheim, 44, a natural ally. The 17-year Lehman veteran knows the language of Wall Street and is comfortable carrying out orders.

Freidheim reports to interim CEO W. Bruce Johnson, a logistics expert and Lampert loyalist who followed the billionaire from Kmart to Sears in 2005. (Lehman Brothers advised Lampert on the Kmart-Sears merger.) Johnson has served as Sears’ interim CEO for the past two years.

Sears has been conducting a CEO search for more than two years to no avail. Lampert doesn’t want a retailer at the helm, said one person close to the executive search.

Could the post go to Johnson? Freidheim? No one?

Since joining Sears in January 2009, Freidheim, a Kellogg MBA, has been learning the retail business. In 2010, he may be ready to do more.

— Sandra M. Jones

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Update: 2009 Ones to Watch: How did we fare in our predictions? PAGE 2