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Chicago has been eliminated from Olympic balloting in the early rounds of voting by the International Olympic Committee, a stunningly swift defeat for the U.S. bid personally pitched by President Barack Obama.

Minutes later, Tokyo also was eliminated.

Rio de Janeiro and Madrid are now left seeking approval to host the 2016 Summer Games. The host city is to be announced around noon Chicago time.

To some observers, it appeared that Chicago’s bid had been fast gathering momentum in the last week. Daley and others began to show their confidence as one piece after another fell into place. From First Lady Michelle Obama and Oprah Winfrey’s early commitments to travel with them to Copenhagen, to President Barack Obama’s late decision to go, to bad news trickling out about the Rio’s bid, indicators looked to be going Chicago’s way.

But members of the International Olympic Committee are known for being unpredictable, even impulsive, when they gather to pick a host city.

And in 2016, it won’t be Chicago.

The 2016 Summer Games were to be Mayor Richard Daley’s legacy. Now the mayor comes home to face recession-driven budget woes and concerns about violence that plague Chicago, without the ability to change the public dialogue to Olympics talk.

Daley and his Olympic bid team will now have to decide whether to regroup and try again for the 2020 Games. Conventional wisdom in Chicago cuts against extending the effort, partly because the bid has been so closely tied to Daley. At 67, the mayor’s political plans may not include remaining in office long enough to see through another run at the Games.

The IOC had lauded Chicago’s plan, which focused on clustering Olympic venues in parkland along the stunning Lake Michigan shore. From the athletic and technical perspective, the bid won very high marks.

But things got complicated when it came to Chicago politics.

For months, Daley had promised that the Games wouldn’t be a burden on Chicago taxpayers, proclaiming he would stick to limited financial guarantees from the city if the Games lost money. But the IOC stood firm in its demand that candidate cities pledge a blanket guarantee for the Games. In June, Daley did an about-face and promised the IOC just such a guarantee, fueling public skepticism that taxpayers would foot the bill if the games became a boondoggle.

That led to a rocky summer, as Chicago 2016 officials launched a public relations campaign to reassure residents that a novel plan of insurance policies would provide nearly fail-safe level of protection against potential losses.

But public support fell and a late-August Tribune/WGN poll found that support for the Games in Chicago had dipped to 47 percent.

Last month, however, Daley convinced the City Council to once again sign off on the financial guarantee. Whether they were caught up in the Olympics fever or didn’t want to cross the mayor, aldermen voted 49-0 to endorse Chicago’s bid.