Today’s question: Is it possible to schedule yourself into, or out of, national title contention?
Answer: Can future U.S. Congressman Lou Holtz talk?
Scheduling, as it relates to the Bowl Championship Series, is one of the trickiest components to making a run to the title.
If your schedule is too easy, watch your undefeated season get picked over by the voting pundits and computer indexes.
Auburn finished unscathed in 2004 but ended up behind USC and Oklahoma in part because of a weak non-conference schedule. (Spare us your “we had to play Citadel because Bowling Green dropped off” spiel. … Tell it to the Marines.)
Or, if it’s easy, you can take a chance you can pull one over on the BCS standings. Kansas State, with a non-conference lineup of Indiana State, Northern Illinois and Louisiana-Monroe, came within one play in 1998 of the first BCS title game.
If your schedule is too hard, as Fresno State has discovered, you can watch your BCS dreams need triage by early October.
What if multiple schools go undefeated? Here are contending teams most deserving of the top BCS spots if they run their schedules.
1. Georgia: At Oklahoma State, at Arkansas, home against Arizona State and Louisiana State, Florida in Jacksonville and the Southeastern Conference title game against … Alabama? That’s enough to give the Bulldogs heartburn.
2. Oklahoma State: Undefeated for the Cowboys would mean a season-opening victory against Georgia and conference victories against Texas, Oklahoma, Missouri plus the Big 12 title game against … Nebraska?
3. Oregon: Highly respected prognosticator Phil Steele doesn’t have the Ducks in his preseason top 50 (say what?). But if Oregon goes undefeated against a schedule that opens with Boise State, Purdue, Utah and Cal, with USC down the road, how do you leave the Ducks on the pond?
Honorable mention: Arkansas, USC and Oklahoma. The Razorbacks are at Alabama, at Florida and at LSU. The Trojans are at Ohio State, Cal, Oregon and Notre Dame. The Sooners have Brigham Young, at Miami, Texas and at Oklahoma State.
Potential undefeated contenders that would be less worthy of BCS standings consideration:
1. Penn State: It wouldn’t be the first time Joe Paterno lost a national title because of scheduling. The Nittany Lions play three gingerbread cookies in non-conference (Akron, Syracuse, Temple) and get Ohio State at home in a Big Ten that went 1-6 in bowls last year.
2. Boise State: Sorry, a home-opening victory over Oregon won’t be enough to overcome also beating UC-Davis and winning a second-tier Western Athletic Conference. Utah went undefeated last year with a tougher schedule, and that didn’t get a BCS sniff.
3. Florida: (“Flak jacket securely fastened?” Check.) This won’t be Auburn 2004 all over again because the Gators will start the season ranked No. 1 (Auburn had to climb from preseason No. 17). But Florida plays Charleston Southern, Troy and Florida International in non-conference. Georgia is at a neutral site, making Oct. 10 at LSU the only true road test.
Dishonorable mention: Alabama. Try Florida International, North Texas, Chattanooga, LSU at home … wouldn’t play Florida until the SEC title game.
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