As America’s role in the Iraq War winds down, President Barack Obama shifts the focus to Afghanistan, where efforts are ramping up. Thousands more troops are headed to Afghanistan in an attempt to reverse gains made by militants and a resurgent Taliban. But as the focus changes, so must the strategy of the U.S. military. Recent changes made by Obama include one at the top, with Gen. David McKiernan ousted and replaced by Lt. Gen. Stanley McChrystal. The lack of a bold operational plan and a reluctance to adopt successful strategies from Iraq were reasons cited for McKiernan’s dismissal. But questions remain as to what will work in Afghanistan, a nation that many before the U.S. have found an unsolvable puzzle.
Genghis Khan and the Mongols
Their invasion in 1219 devastated the land. The death of one of Khan’s grandsons at the military stronghold of Bamiyan led Khan to order that every person there be killed. Khan’s death in 1227 returned the country to its state of disunity.
The Great Game
During the 19th Century, Afghanistan became the target of British influence as part of a British-Russian competition over control of the subcontinent. The first Anglo-Afghan War in 1839 resulted in the destruction of a British army. The second, in 1878, brought about stability and the establishment of the country’s borders. A third war, in 1919, resulted in the British relinquishing control.
The Soviet invasion
Unrest following a 1978 military coup left the country ripe for invasion by the Soviet Union, which installed a puppet regime. Despite the presence of 120,000 Soviet troops, the government was unable to control many areas outside Kabul due in part to the success of anti-government mujahedeen fighters, who received military aid from the U.S. and other nations. In 1989, after 14,500 Soviet and an estimated 1 million Afghan deaths, the Soviet Union withdrew
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The challenges of Afghanistan today
CIVILIAN CASUALTIES: Among the issues adding to unrest in Afghanistan is the mounting death toll of civilians at the hands of anti- and pro-government forces. The UN Assistance Mission to Afghanistan reported that 2,118 Afghan civilians were killed in fighting in 2008, up from 1,523 the year before. On Monday, an operation by U.S.-led forces left three people dead.
One of the war’s most controversial incidents happened May 4 in the village of Garani after Allied forces called in airstrikes. The Afghans say 140 civilians were killed, while the U.S. military says no more than 30 were, along with as many as 65 Taliban militants.
Civilian deaths by region, 2008 (Circles are in scale to one another)
(See map)
U.S. troop deaths by year
2001: 11
2002: 49
2003: 45
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2004: 52
2005: 98
2006: 98
2007: 117
2008: 155
2009: 51
THE INSURGENCY: The strength of the Taliban and loosely allied militant groups has grown dramatically over the past two years. 2008 was the most violent year since the U.S.-led invasion in 2001 in terms of deaths of Afghan civilians and Western troops.
POLITICS: President Hamid Karzai faces a re-election bid on Aug. 20. His popularity has plummeted, but the opposition is weak and divided, and he is expected to win. Western officials are concerned that Karzai has allied with ex-warlords with serious records of human-rights violations, including one who is on his ticket as a vice presidential contender.
SECURITY: Safety has deteriorated sharply in many areas of the country, with road travel between major cities becoming extremely dangerous. A few provincial capitals are virtually cut off from the outside world except by air.
TROOP SURGE: The number of U.S. troops will increase to more than 55,000. But NATO allies have not made commensurate increases in their force strength. This has caused some tensions within the alliance.
CORRUPTION: Corruption, much of it fueled by drug money, extends into the highest reaches of Afghan government. The U.S. has been extremely critical of the Karzai administration over official malfeasance, though it has toned down complaints as the election draws closer so as not to be seen as interfering.
RECONSTRUCTION: The pace of rebuilding has been slow, despite enormous expenditures, and is cited by many Afghans as a major source of disillusionment with the foreign presence. Although international aid agencies report some progress, many infrastructure projects are derailed or delayed by inadequate security.
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Key to the Taliban’s resurgence has been support from their fellow Pashtun tribesmen, including those in tribal areas on the Pakistani side of the Taliban haven from which to operate.
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Since the Soviets
1989-96: The Afghan civil war continues following the Soviet departure, ending with the eventual rise of the Taliban, a militant Islamic group largely made up of ethnic Pashtuns educated in Pakistani religious schools.
1996-2001: The Taliban impose an extreme form of Islam that includes particularly harsh treatment of women and girls. They also provide sanctuary to former mujahedeen fighter Osama bin Laden and his al Qaeda terrorist organization.
Late 2001: The Taliban’s refusal to surrender bin Laden following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks leads to the Oct. 7 invasion by the U.S. and its allies and the rapid deterioration of Taliban control.
2002-04: A new Afghan government is formed, highlighted by the 2004 ratification of a constitution and the nation’s first democratic presidential election.
2005-present: With reconstruction bogged down and corruption rampant, Taliban influence grows, especially in the south and areas along the border with Pakistan, where tribal loyalties allow it to operate with impunity.
Ethnic divisions
Afghanistan sits at the crossroads of multiple ethnic and language groups. One thing Afghans have in common is that nearly all are Muslim, with about 80 percent Sunni and the remainder mostly Shiite.
Pashtun: 42%
Tajik: 27%
Hazara: 9%
Uzbek: 9%
Aimak: 4%
Turkmen: 3%
Nuristani
Baloch: 2%
Brahui
Sparsely populated
Others: 4%
Foreign presence
U.S. TROOPS
At end of each year; scale in thousands
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2001 – 2009
May 19: 49,300
TOTAL FOREIGN TROOPS: Approximately 70,175 (as of April 3)
U.S.: 38,000
Others: 32,175
(Breakdown of “others”)
Britain: 8,300
Germany: 3,465
Canada: 2,830
France: 2,780
Italy: 2,350
Netherlands: 1,770
Poland: 1,590
Australia: 1,090
33 other nations: About 8,000
SOURCES: U.S. State Department, U.S. Department of Defense, CIA World Factbook, United Nations Assistance Mission to Afghanistan, NATO, Encyclopedia Britannica, Tribune reporting
– See microfilm for complete graphic.