Last week’s record: 8-6
Season to date: 48-26
Last week vs. spread: 5-8-1
Season vs. spread: 36-36-2
Off: Bills, Chiefs, Steelers, Titans
Bears (3-2) at Falcons (3-2) Noon Sunday
TV/radio: WFLD-Ch. 32, WBBM-AM 780
Line: Bears by 3 Weather: Dome
THE BUZZ: Bears: Kyle Orton’s improved passing grabs headlines, but Bears may be NFC North’s best because defense is carrying its share of load. Could dominate Falcons’ young offense and rookie QB Matt Ryan.
Falcons: Have won their 2 home games by combined score of 72-35 (Lions, Chiefs), but Bears pose bigger challenge. Big games needed from RB Michael Turner and pass-rusher John Abraham (NFL-leading 7 sacks).
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Bears’ Matt Forte leads rookies with 383 rushing yards (3.6 average). Falcons’ Roddy White having solid season with 26 catches, 2 for TDs.
THE PICK: BEARS 23 FALCONS 17
MATCHUP: Dolphins (2-2) at Texans (0-4)
Noon Sunday
Line: Texans by 3
Weather: 85M-0, partly cloudy
THE BUZZ: Dolphins: Is Bill Parcells’ magic touch working from front office? After beating last year’s AFC finalists (Patriots, Chargers) in last 2, there could be letdown.
Texans: Have to shake off blowing 17-point 4th-quarter lead to Colts. Hard-luck team of NFL is due to snap out of it as QB Matt Schaub returns to lineup.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Dolphins’ Ronnie Brown, who has rushed for 238 yards last 2 games, is tied for NFL lead with 6 rushing TDs. Texans’ Steve Slaton has 336 total yards and 4 TDs in last 3 games.
THE PICK: TEXANS 24 DOLPHINS 23
MATCHUP: Ravens (2-2) at Colts (2-2)
Noon Sunday
Line: Colts by 4
Weather: 80M-0, sunny
THE BUZZ: Ravens: Have shot if they control ball with running game and don’t ask rookie Joe Flacco (only 1 TD pass vs. 4 INTs) to do too much.
Colts: Only few plays away from being 0-4. They have to figure out way to shore up their rushing defense, which is last in league (188.5 yards per game).
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FANTASY OUTLOOK: Ravens FB Le’Ron McClain has 4 rushing TDs and is getting 4.2 yards per carry. Colts’ Joseph Addai rushed for 2 TDs in win over Ravens in December and has 4 TDs this year.
THE PICK: COLTS 23 RAVENS 13
MATCHUP: Lions (0-4) at Vikings (2-3)
Noon Sunday
Line: Vikings by 13
Weather: Dome
THE BUZZ: Lions: Are losing by robust 20.3 points per game and they’re playing in building where they haven’t won since 1997 (10 straight losses). Hard to see recipe for upset.
Vikings: With 2 wins in last 3, have entered playoff race with Gus Frerotte at QB. Won with mediocre production from Adrian Peterson (63-yard average over last 3 games).
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Lions need to control ball with RB Kevin Smith (3.6 yards per carry, 2 rushing TDs). Bernard Berrian, who had 33-yard TD catch Monday night, playing larger role for Vikes.
THE PICK: VIKINGS 27 LIONS 10
MATCHUP: Raiders (1-3) at Saints (2-3)
Noon Sunday
Line: Saints by 7
Weather: Dome
THE BUZZ: Raiders: It’s 1st game under new coach Tom Cable, who inherits team that needs to win with defense. DE Kalimba Edwards has 3 sacks in last 3 games and must have big day.
Saints: Face early turning point, and can’t afford mistake-filled game like their loss to Minnesota on Monday night.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Raiders QB JaMarcus Russell, returning to state where he was a star at LSU, has thrown 4 TDs and only 1 INT. Saints’ Reggie Bush keeps getting into end zone (6 TDs, 3 on punt returns).
THE PICK: SAINTS 24 RAIDERS 20
MATCHUP: Bengals (0-5) at Jets (2-2)
Noon Sunday
Line: Jets by 5 1/2
Weather: 70M-0, sunny
THE BUZZ: Bengals: Rank as one of NFL’s top disappointments, but coach Marvin Lewis is hanging in there. They can score points at least.
Jets: Return from week off hoping offense didn’t get rusty during break. Have scored 85 points in their last 2 games as Brett Favre leads NFL in passer rating (110.8) and TD passes (12).
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Should be big day for WRs like Bengals’ T. J. Houshmandzadeh (31 catches, 3 TDs) and Jets’ Laveranues Coles (18 catches, 4 TDs).
THE PICK: JETS 27 BENGALS 17
MATCHUP: Panthers (4-1) at Bucs (3-2)
Noon Sunday
Line: Bucs by 1 1/2
Weather: 85M-0, 30 percent chance of rain
THE BUZZ: Panthers: Have won 5 straight at Tampa. Off to best start since ’03 Super Bowl and can make major move in NFC South. Defense growing confident, allowing only 46 points in last 4 games (3-1).
Bucs: Likely will go back to QB Jeff Garcia with Brian Griese battling elbow injury. They’ll have to run ball with Earnest Graham and Warrick Dunn to win.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Panthers’ Jake Delhomme is 7-1 vs. Bucs, completing 62.4 percent with 13 TDs vs. 7 INTs. Bucs’ Graham, averaging 5.9 yards per carry, has rushing TD in 5 straight home games.
THE PICK: PANTHERS 24 BUCS 17
MATCHUP: Rams (0-4) at Redskins (4-1)
Noon Sunday
Line: Redskins by 13 1/2
Weather: 75M-0, partly cloudy
THE BUZZ: Rams: Return from week off under new coach Jim Haslett. Rams haven’t scored more than 14 points in game or held anyone under 31, losing by 26 points per game.
Redskins: Offense a model of consistency, with Jason Campbell yet to throw INT and Clinton Portis averaging 4.5 yards per carry with 4 rushing TDs.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Haslett plans to make better use of WRs Torry Holt and rookie Donnie Avery. Santana Moss has 27 catches, 3 TDs for Redskins.
THE PICK: REDSKINS 34 RAMS 13
MATCHUP: Jaguars (2-3) at Broncos (4-1)
3:05 p.m. Sunday
TV: WBBM-Ch. 2
Line: Broncos by 3 1/2
Weather: 60M-0, partly cloudy
THE BUZZ: Jaguars: Haven’t played game this season decided by more than 7 points, meaning they’re always within big play of winning. But firepower is lacking.
Broncos: Are 3-0 at home, with victory margins of 1, 2 and 3 points. They can’t let Jaguars stay close, so they need some big passing plays.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Jaguars’ Fred Taylor averaging 3.4 yards per carry and still looking for 1st rushing TD. Broncos’ Brandon Marshall leads AFC with 34 catches and has 3 TD receptions.
THE PICK: BRONCOS 27 JAGUARS 21
MATCHUP: Cowboys (4-1) at Cardinals (3-2)
3:15 p.m. Sunday
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Line: Cowboys by 5
Weather: Dome
THE BUZZ: Cowboys: Have learned they’re not invincible with close call vs. Bengals last week and loss to Redskins 2 weeks ago. Controlling ball will be key.
Cardinals: QB Kurt Warner, 37, is talking about retiring after season, just as he’s getting Arizona going. Big pass plays would be key to upset.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Cowboys’ Terrell Owens, who is complaining again, has 26 catches and 5 TDs in last 4 games vs. Cards. Larry Fitzgerald leads Arizona with 31 catches, 4 for TDs.
THE PICK: COWBOYS 30 CARDINALS 20
MATCHUP: Eagles (2-3) at 49ers (2-3)
3:15 p.m. Sunday
Line: Eagles by 5
Weather: 70M-0, sunny
THE BUZZ: Eagles: Donovan McNabb stepped up this week and called Eagles’ performance in loss to Redskins “embarrassing.” Eagles can’t afford to fall further behind in NFC East, NFL’s best division.
49ers: J. T. O’Sullivan has thrown 5 TD passes vs. 4 INTs at home but will need some big plays in this one.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Eagles’ DeSean Jackson leads NFL rookies with 335 receiving yards (1 TD). Frank Gore remains 49ers’ best hope, leading NFL with 603 yards from scrimmage (4 TDs).
THE PICK: EAGLES 27 49ERS 24
MATCHUP: Packers (2-3) at Seahawks (1-3)
3:15 p.m. Sunday
TV: WFLD-Ch. 32
Line: Seahawks by 2
Weather: 55M-0, partly cloudy
THE BUZZ: Packers: Beat Seahawks in playoffs last season with 201-yard, 3-TD game from RB Ryan Grant, who is looking for his 1st big game of season. That would take some pressure of Aaron Rodgers (sore shoulder).
Seahawks: After blowout loss on road to Giants, it’s time for Seattle to get act together or watch playoff hopes disappear. Defense will be key.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Packers’ Greg Jennings, who had 2 TDs vs. Seahawks in January, has 3 TD receptions this season. Seahawks’ Julius Jones has rushed for 267 yards and 2 TDs in 2 home games this season.
THE PICK: SEAHAWKS 23 PACKERS 17
MATCHUP: Patriots (3-1) at Chargers (2-3)
7:15 p.m. Monday
TV/radio: WMAQ-Ch. 5, WSCR-AM 670
Line: Chargers by 5
Weather: 75M-0, clear
THE BUZZ: Patriots: Stayed in California after Sunday’s win at San Francisco to get some extra rest. But winning 2 on this kind of trip is difficult.
Chargers: Lost twice to Pats last season, including AFC title game. They’re desperate for win, and they’re at home.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Pats’ Matt Cassel has settled down, throwing 3 TD passes vs. 3 INTs. Chargers’ Philip Rivers is 2nd in NFL with 103.0 passer rating and 11 TD passes.
THE PICK: CHARGERS 27 PATRIOTS 17
MATCHUP: Giants (4-0) at Browns (1-3)
7:30 p.m. Monday
TV/radio: ESPN, WSCR-AM 670
Line: Giants by 7 1/2
Weather: 65M-0, partly cloudy
THE BUZZ: Giants: With NFL’s top-ranked offense, Giants are playing in high gear, winning by average of 19.5 points. They shouldn’t be challenged here.
Browns: Still searching for answers, but they won’t come easily against NFC’s best defense.
FANTASY OUTLOOK: Brandon Jacobs averaging 5.8 yards per carry with 3 rushing TDs. Browns’ Derek Anderson has only 3 TD passes vs. 6 INTs.
THE PICK: GIANTS 30 BROWNS 17