Surprising no one other than the easily surprised, BIG BROWN comes out on top in the computer rankings. Coming in off five straight wins, including large Derby and Preakness fields, he dominates in speed, class and form. The human in me sees even more to like – circling the field in the Derby with a patient ride. Then he overcame tight quarters to explode in the stretch at the Preakness. The computer has no means of evaluating those dimensions of his dominance, but humans do. Thus he is awarded with morning line odds of 2-5. Flattering odds for CASINO DRIVE, who also comes in undefeated on two starts, but he carries a lot more weight this time out and has no experience at the distance or against this level of competition. His breeding says the distance is no problem. DENIS OF CORK was my wiseguy play in the Derby and he delivered on my speculative prediction with a solid third-place effort. I look for him to advance off of that effort and he should hit the board.
ICABAD CRANE and MACHO AGAIN both looked strong in the Preakness and should have no trouble going the extra distance, with similar late-running rides. I will have win money on Big Brown, more for sentimental value than anything else. I will box Big Brown, Denis of Cork, Icabad Crane and Macho Again in my exacta. In my trifecta I will play Big Brown with Denis of Cork with ALL, and Big Brown with ALL with Denis of Cork. In my superfecta I will key Big Brown over Denis of Cork over Casino Drive, TALE OF EKATI, Icabad Crane, Macho Again and READY’S ECHO. And as I suggested in the Derby, get a fistful of $2 souvenir tickets on Big Brown.
Durbin’s computer analysis
PP, HORSE (JOCKEY) – TRAINER, ODDS, SPEED, CLASS, FORM, LAST, CONN, LINE, TOTAL
1, Big Brown (Desormeaux) – Dutrow, 2-5, 50.3, 50.9, 65.1, 17.2, 13.8, 31.9, 229.1
5, Casino Drive (Prado) – Fujisawa, 7-2, 50.2, 7.3, 65.1, 4.7, 14.3, 3.6, 145.3
7, Tale of Ekati (Coa) – Tagg, 20-1, 40.0, 23.6, 27.2, 8.5, 14.4, 0.6, 114.3
4, Denis of Cork (Albarado) – Carroll, 12-1, 35.6, 16.7, 40.8, 10.3, 6.2, 1.1, 110.7
10, Icabad Crane (Rose) – Motion, 20-1, 35.6, 7.0, 48.6, 4.5, 5.1, 0.6, 101.4
9, Ready’s Echo (Velazquez) – Pletcher, 30-1, 35.7, 2.2, 40.5, 3.8, 11.9, 0.4, 94.6
3, Macho Again (Gomez) – Stewart, 20-1, 39.3, 7.2, 29.0, 5.2, 6.6, 0.6, 88.0
6, Da’ Tara (Garcia) – Zito, 30-1, 44.0, 3.7, 23.2, 3.4, 13.0, 0.4, 87.8
8, Anak Nakal (Leparoux) – Zito, 30-1, 35.1, 11.7, 15.3, 6.1, 7.8, 0.4, 76.4
2, Guadalcanal (Catellano) – Seitz, 50-1, 34.3, 0.9, 18.5, 3.0, 6.9, 0.3, 63.7
SPEED — Early speed out of the gate; CLASS — Quality of company the horse has been running against; FORM — Ability to consistently hit the board; LAST — Performance over the last 50 days; CONN — Connections (jockey and trainer stats); LINE — Morning-line adjustment
Neil Milbert’s predicted finish
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1. BIG BROWN Should wear Triple Crown
2. CASINO DRIVE Japanese colt has pedigree
3. TALE OF EKATI Unbeaten at Belmont Park
4. ANAK NAKAL Zito took ’04 Belmont