For four years Liam Durbin, the Tribune’s horse racing handicapper, has used a computer program (with some modifications) to predict the outcome of the NCAA tournament.
This year, Durbin took a look at the so-called “bubble teams.” Eleven teams were put into a round-robin analysis to determine which would win the most games against the rest. According to the computer, if there were five at-large bids available on Selection Sunday, here’s how it should have gone:
These teams are in:
Villanova 10
Arizona 9
Ohio State 8
Dayton 7
Kentucky 6
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These teams are out:
Illinois State 4
Oregon 4
Massachusetts 3
Mississippi 2
VCU 2
Arizona State 0
As for the outcome of the real tournament, the computer sees the very fortunate few (Kansas and North Carolina) and then the rest. Not much separates an Arkansas from a Xavier. The computer says a few would-be aristocrats suffer–for example, Memphis’ lack of class (weak schedule and weak conference) and UCLA’s lack of speed (frequent scoring droughts). This year looks to be a wild one, but the computer says the blue bloods will prevail, with North Carolina cutting down Texas in the final.
THE METRICS
Speed: Ability to put points on the board consistently.
Class: Strength of schedule, strength of conference, wins against winners.
Form: Consistent results, no wild swings in scoring or points allowed.
Connections: Coaching record, intangibles.
DURBIN’S FINAL FOUR %% TEAM SPEED CLASS FORM CONN. TOTAL SCORE
N. Carolina 7.6 15.5 12.5 5.4 40.9 85.6
Kansas 7.4 14.5 12.5 4.6 39.1 82.9
Duke 8.0 13.6 13.0 5.3 39.9 69.1
Texas 7.0 16.4 12.0 4.7 40.1 78.4
DURBIN’S FINAL TEAM SPEED CLASS FORM CONN. TOTAL SCORE
N. Carolina 8.0 14.4 13.1 5.5 41.1 81.1
Texas 7.0 15.6 11.9 4.5 38.9 69.6 %%