by Jim Tankersley
Mitt Romney’s decision to suspend his presidential campaign today appears to answer an enormous question – who will be the 2008 Republican nominee for president? But it leaves several others unanswered, particularly as we look ahead to the general election.
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Here’s a snap rundown of Three Burning Questions (we put that in caps to make it sound official) that Romney leaves in his wake.
* How low will the Democrats go?
When one candidate has a clear path to his nomination (McCain, in this case) and two others are facing a potentially months-long struggle for theirs, convention wisdom says the clearer path benefits. Instead of fencing with Romney – whose attacks on McCain’s conservatism grew harsher by the day last week – McCain gets to sit back and watch Democrats Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton tear each other apart for … a long time. At least in theory.
Thing is, so far Clinton and Obama have stayed fairly civil in their primary. Unlike the Republicans, neither has aired anything resembling an attack ad. After trading slumlord and Wal-Mart board charges in an earlier forum, their first one-on-one debate last week was a borderline love fest. The longer they stay pleasant, the conventional wisdom would go, the less McCain benefits – and the longer national Republicans have to train their fire on two Democrats, not one. Democrats, meanwhile, now get to train all their national fire on McCain.
Some Democrats even argue that their candidates would benefit by getting nastier – and soon.
“What really upsets me about the party is we’re not more combative in the nominating process,” Democratic strategist David “Mudcat” Saunders told The Swamp this week. “We try to be nice. We don’t like people who say bad things. We’re a feel-good party… How many times have you heard the name Monca Lewinsky mentioned in this campaign so far? How many times are you going to hear it from the (Democratic) convention on?”* How will McCain spend his down time?
There are upsides and downsides to the seven months – you read that right – McCain must wait before he formally accepts the Republican nomination.
That’s more than enough time, on one hand, to try to mend fences with the conservative base that McCain never had to rally to secure the nomination. He’ll need them in November – and the next few months should afford him plenty of opportunities to court Rush Limbaugh, James Dobson and, most importantly, the millions of conservative voters who tune into them every day.
Too much layoff can also kill a campaign – just ask Rudy Giuliani. If the full media spotlight swings to a prolonged Obama-Clinton delegate hunt, McCain could easily fall off the radar and down in the polls. He’ll need to find ways to get attention without an opponent. Debating Ron Paul probably won’t do the trick.
* Wither Mike Huckabee?
The wild card for McCain is his biggest rival left on the board: Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor, who faces a crossroads in his campaign today.
Does he run on but stay, as he has been so far, largely positive toward McCain? Or does he pick up Romney’s sword and, building on his natural base of evangelical Christians, try to rally a conservative block to deny McCain the nomination?
The former all-but assures McCain the nomination but leaves Huckabee in good graces for a potential running-mate selection. The latter gives him an outside shot, at best, at the top of the ticket. It also could wound McCain’s conservative reconciliation efforts – and perhaps, his shot at the White House.