by Frank James
Ever since Sen. John McCain’s stunning comeback from the political wasteland to become the clear frontrunner for the Republican nomination, many pundits have said that virtually no one in Washington journalism foresaw late last year that the senator from Arizona would be in the position he’s now in.
Ahem. Actually your devoted Swamp reporter was on record last year saying he foresaw McCain getting the nomination.
Joe Strupp, a reporter for a publishing industry magazine, Editor & Publisher, asked several political bloggers at newspapers which candidates they thought would win their respective party’s nomination.
Here’s what he published on Dec. 1, 2007:
The Bloggers Weigh In
James Pindell
The Boston Globe
Blog: Primary Source
Most Crucial Campaign Issue: Iraq
Expected Democratic Nominee: Hillary Clinton
Expected Republican Nominee: Can’t choose now
Dark Horse: Mike Huckabee
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Political Reporting Hero: David Yepsen, Jules Witcover
Worst thing about blogging: Anxiety
Frank James
baiduhai
Blog: The Swamp
Most Crucial Campaign Issue: Iraq
Expected Democratic Nominee: Hillary Clinton
Expected Republican Nominee: John McCain
Dark Horse: John McCain
Political Reporting Hero: I.F. Stone
Worst thing about blogging: Endless
Kate Phillips
The New York Times
Blog: The Caucus
Most Crucial Campaign Issue: Iraq
Expected Democratic Nominee: No Choice
Expected Republican Nominee: No Choice
Dark Horse: Mike Huckabee
Political Reporting Hero: None
Worst thing about blogging: Only the reader sleeps
Chris Cillizza
The Washington Post
Blog: The Fix
Most Crucial Campaign Issue: Iraq
Expected Democratic Nominee: Hillary Clinton
Expected Republican Nominee: Mitt Romney
Dark Horse: Mike Huckabee, John Edwards
Political Reporting Hero: John Harris
Worst thing about blogging: Time commitment
Andrew Malcolm
Los Angeles Times
Blog: Top of the ticket
Most Crucial Campaign Issue: Iraq
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Expected Democratic Nominee: Hillary Clinton
Expected Republican Nominee: Mitt Romney
Dark Horse: John Edwards
Political Reporting Hero: R.W. Apple
Worst thing about blogging: Venomous commentsOK, I admit I was wrong on the Iraq thing although it may rise once again to be the top concern of voters by November. And I could still be wrong on both the McCain and Clinton picks, which were only educated guesses, after all, and neither candidate has the nomination sewn up. But it does look increasingly like McCain will be the Republican nominee.
It always seemed to me that McCain had too much of a political brand name and too interesting a personal biography story to be written off as completely as he was. He was well known and didn’t have to be introduced anew to voters.
That presence in voter’s minds is important in American politics. It creates a certain comfort level when people are faced with difficult choices.
Also, late last year you could see the Iraq surge was bringing down levels of insecurity in the country and that seemed like a factor that could neutralize the war issue, even before the economy rose to become voters’ top concern.
The other reason I thought McCain was still viable back then was that while conservatives had many bones to pick with him, all the other Republican candidates had raised alarm bells for Republican voters too, which those same voters kept telling reporters about.
Whether it was Mitt Romney’s alleged inconstancy on important issues or Rudolph Giuliani’s moderate social views and messy personal life, if was difficult seeing any of them breezing to the nomination.
All McCain had to do was keep trudging along long enough until the other candidates began to lose lift by voter concerns, which he did. Americans like that kind of tenacity, especially in a presidential candidate, and they’re rewarding him in part for it at the polls.
Here’s hoping my predictive powers don’t fail me when March Madness rolls around.