by Christi Parsons
COLUMBIA, S.C.-So just how well does Barack Obama have to do in this state’s primary to score a “win” today?
It depends on whom you ask, of course. Sen. Hillary Clinton this week has tried implicitly to downplay expectations for her own performance, continuing her campaigning in Feb. 5 precincts and making a few strategic touchdowns in the Palmetto State.
And Clinton aides this afternoon are reminding everyone of Obama’s large lead in voter opinion polls.
But the Obama camp recalling the lessons of the New Hampshire primary; even when the poll numbers suggest Obama is doing pretty well, you can’t underestimate the power of the Clinton operation to turn out votes.
Also, don’t forget that Bill Clinton has been working the small towns of South Carolina vigorously this week. Bubba’s not bad on a Southern stump, and could help his wife cut into Obama’s support.
That makes it all the harder to guess what today’s turnout — quite healthy, from the latest reports — portends for either side.
In any case, with African American voters poised to play such a crucial role in the voting, Obama needs to perform pretty well to meet expectations.
Voter surveys suggest black voters may favor Obama by as much as 5-to-1 — no small matter, if African Americans cross the halfway mark in the number of Democrats who show up to vote today.
And don’t forget the role John Edwards supporters will play today. The South Carolina native is back by double-digits in the polls, but he’s hoping a decent showing could keep hope alive among his core of progressive backers as the three Democrats head into the 20-plus state primary a week from Tuesday.
Notables to keep an eye on: Will Obama’s demonstrated strength among white voters hold up in South Carolina? And what will happen to the storyline of the gender gap on Sunday morning?