by Frank James
The Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll out last night on how Americans feel about the economy has at least two interesting results.
One is counterintuitive, given all the statements lately by pundits, politicians and others about the public’s surging economic anxiety.
The poll found that even though nearly 80 percent of Americans thought there’d be a recession within the year, a majority also felt their own economic situations were just fine.
As the related article in the Los Angeles Times puts it:
The anxiety Wall Street is feeling from the mortgage crisis, housing slump and high oil prices is resonating with more than two-thirds of adults surveyed, who think the economy is performing badly. An even greater percentage — 79% — are convinced a recession is likely within the next year.
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But two-thirds of adults also say they have yet to feel the effects of that dour forecast, rating their personal situation as secure.
The level of confidence rises with income. Among adults earning more than $100,000 a year, 92% feel safe, while more than half of those bringing in less than $40,000 a year describe their finances as “shaky.”
Experts attribute the prevailing optimism in the face of an economic storm to the fact that many more Americans survive recessions unscathed than are harmed by them — particularly those in two-income households with fixed mortgage rates and stable jobs.
“Those folks are not in bad shape, and they don’t have much to fear about the recession,” said Gus Faucher, an economist at Moody’s Economy.com. “Recessions put millions out of work, but there are many more people who keep their jobs.”Still, if you have a third of Americans who are feeling the effects of the recession, that’s millions of Americans and voters who, theoretically, should be ripe to hear and be persuaded by the right economic arguments from the right presidential candidate.
And even all those other Americans less concerned about their personal circumstances likely have family and friends, or know someone on the economic bubble, who they’d be concerned about.
Another aspect of the poll worth noting: most of those surveyed said if a recession happens, they’d blame President Bush (19 percent) more than the mortgage industry (15 percent.)
Just more evidence that President Harry Truman was right. For many Americans, the buck does stop at the Oval Office desk.