by Frank James
Conservative blogger Ed Morrissey over at Captain’s Quarters has an analysis of what the exit polls tell us about Mitt Romney’s victory . Essentially, it was a strong showing across the board for Romney who now has something to show for all the money he has spent up to this point.
The key point, as Morrissey puts it, is this:
In looking at the exit polling at CNN, the surprise is in how broad Romney’s victory was. He won most of the demographics in the exit polling, with McCain only winning a handful. McCain won among those who back a path-to-citizenship policy for immigration, but only by 5 points over Romney. That suggests that immigration was not as big an issue for Michigan Republicans despite a bad economy and job competition. Romney won pluralities among both conservatives and liberals, with McCain winning among moderates. Strangely, McCain won pluralities among those who disapprove and strongly disapprove of the Iraq war. Mitt handily won among those who support it, even though McCain has been one of its strongest advocates.
Ron Paul only won 6% of the overall vote, and did badly among expected demographics. He took 20% of those who strongly disapprove of the Iraq war, a third-place finish despite being the only anti-war candidate, and only 8% among those who somewhat disapprove of it. He took only 13% of the independents and just 7% of the Democrats, who themselves comprised only 7% of the vote.The question is whether Romney, who had the native-son advantage in Michigan, will be able to duplicate this showing elsewhere. It’s no small thing to have a family name that resounds with such strength in Michigan due to Romney’s father having been a popular governor there and before that, head of American Motors.
Until Romney can pull off a win like this elsewhere in a state where his father wasn’t governor, the jury will remain out for a lot of people.
Morrissey notes the weirdness in the exit polling for McCain. How is it that people who said they disapproved of the Iraq War voted so strongly for McCain? Romney and McCain’s positions are similar on the war, at least now, since Romney has moved closer to McCain’s position than he was Prue-surge.
But McCain has clearly been a hawk on the war and has said he could foresee the U.S. military being in Iraq for a century. Something doesn’t compute about his capturing antiwar voters, unless other issues, like economics, trumped the war for them.
Morrissey delights in the failure of liberal blogger Markos Moulitsas of Daily Kos to create mischief since Democrats didn’t turn out in large numbers to vote for McCain. Since there wasn’t a real contest for Democrats in Michigan, with Sen. Hillary Clinton being the only major Democratic candidate on the ballot, Kos has asked Democrats to vote instead in the Republican primary for McCain in order to torpedo Romney.
Morrissey says:
More Top Picks Best Migraine Glasses For Outdoor Use
In any case, the crossover gambit flopped. Michigan voters proved their seriousness, even while others encouraged them to play silly games with the franchise.