by Frank James
The polling evidence keeps rolling in that the race for the Democratic presidential nomination is too close to call while the Republican race remains a head scratcher too.
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The Los Angeles Times and Bloomberg News have new polling data that indicates that on the Democratic side Sen. Barack Obama has essentially surged to the point where there is no daylight between him and the former frontrunner in New Hampshire, Sen. Hillary Clinton. Meanwhile, the Democratic race in Iowa remains a three-way tie.
As a story by Janet Hook in the LA Times reports:
WASHINGTON — Barack Obama has wiped out Hillary Rodham Clinton’s once-commanding lead in New Hampshire and the two remain virtually tied with John Edwards in Iowa, as more and more voters get off the fence and decide whom to support, a Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg Poll has found.
Obama drew backing from 32% of New Hampshire Democrats who intend to vote in the primary, compared with Clinton’s 30% — a statistical dead heat. That’s a dramatic shift from September, when a similar poll found him trailing 35% to 16% in the state that will hold its presidential primary Jan. 8.
In Iowa, which opens the 2008 presidential voting with its Jan. 3 caucuses, the poll found Sen. Obama of Illinois, Sen. Clinton of New York and former Sen. Edwards of North Carolina in a statistical three-way tie.The poll suggested, however, that when the question to voters is who do they have greater confidence in on issues of foreign policy, Clinton gains an advantage. Yesterday’s assassination of Pakistani opposition leader Benazir Bhutto made foreign policy experience a bigger asset.
As Hook writes, that’s a factor not just for Democrats but for Republicans too:
But other poll findings suggest Clinton might gain stature in both states if Democrats’ concern about world affairs increases after Thursday’s assassination of former Pakistani Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto. The poll shows that Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire consider Clinton far better equipped than her rivals to safeguard national security — as do Democrats around the country.
Such a shift in focus away from domestic policy also could affect the Republican presidential contest and benefit Sen. John McCain of Arizona, whose campaign has rebounded in New Hampshire. He’s second behind Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts.
The poll found that Republicans in New Hampshire and Iowa consider McCain best qualified to handle foreign affairs, though his campaign has suffered from months of weak fundraising and staff turmoil.
In Iowa, the poll found that the Republican race has been scrambled by the steep rise of former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, the conservative Baptist minister who has opened a lead of 37% to 23% over Romney. For months, Romney had enjoyed a solid lead.
The poll underscores how, in both parties, the two earliest-voting states are ripe for surprises and upsets in the final days of the campaign.