by Paul West
DES MOINES, Iowa–No advantage is too insignificant in the tight-as-a-tick Iowa caucus contest. But there’s one key factor that’s beyond the control of the presidential contenders.
Weather, which can influence turnout, is particularly crucial in Iowa. Unlike a primary, when voters have all day to make it to the polls, caucus participants must show up at 7 o’clock, Central time, next Thursday night to make their choice count.
The weather figures to be uppermost in the minds of campaign strategists, who are already tracking extended forecasts for any sign of a portent, good or ill. At the moment, the news seems to be good for Hillary Clinton…that is, unless it helps Barack Obama, instead. “It isn’t a situation where you vote all day long,” Dave Roederer, a former Iowa Republican Party chairman, explaining the caucuses to a roomful of Iowans and several dozen national reporters at a rally for John McCain.
Roederer, a top official of McCain’s campaign in the state, bemoaned the recent run of bad weather that had, he said, produced the sixth wettest December on record in the state. Snow and ice have repeatedly paralyzed the presidential campaign in both parties, forcing candidates to skip events and making travel difficult.
An ice storm or heavy snow on caucus night is the nightmare scenario for many campaigns. It could be particularly troublesome for Clinton, who is depending heavily on support from older women, many of whom have never been to a caucus before. Her campaign, and others, have elaborate plans for getting supporters to caucus sites, regardless of conditions, but a blizzard could create insurmountable difficulties.
For the moment, at least, that seems unlikely. The long-term forecast is hinting at a warmup in the middle of the week, with temperatures possibly rising into the high 30s, a virtual heat wave for an Iowa winter.
A thaw could prompt an even heavier than expected turnout than party officials are anticipating, at least on the Democratic side, where a record number of caucus-goers is a good bet. And that might benefit Obama, whose chances improve when voters who are less likely to venture out are included in polling calculations.
Republican turnout is projected to be low, a measure of the dispirited mood among the party’s voters. But milder weather could help Huckabee, who is hoping for a big showing by evangelical voters. Many are new to the caucus process and could be looking for any excuse to stay home.
Huckabee himself is encouraging those who aren’t supporting him to do just that.
“If you’re not for me, I hope you don’t go vote,” he told a 1,000 people at a religious-themed rally in West Des Moines on Thursday night. “There’s an Orange Bowl on! We might even buy you a movie ticket.”
No word yet from the Rev. Pat Robertson, who has tried in the past to steer hurricanes through prayer. He’s a supporter of Rudy Giuliani, who could be helped if Huckabee crushes Mitt Romney in Iowa.
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Paul West is the Baltimore Sun’s Washington bureau chief.