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player ready...As Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton has firmed up her lead in the Democratic presidential race, speculation about her potential running mate is rising — among Republicans!
“Absolutely,” said former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani when asked during a recent interview if he thinks Clinton will be nominated. “I believe she will be the nominee and Sen. [Barack] Obama will be the vice presidential nominee.”
Yes, some people already are talking about Clinton as though she were the nominee, even before a single Democratic primary or caucus voter has had a chance to weigh in. As Clinton leads by as much as 20 points ahead of second-place Obama in the polls, Giuliani is hardly the only observer speculating that Clinton will be the Democratic standard-bearer.
But, with Obama? With that prediction, Giuliani expresses out loud what I have heard several friends, associates and news sources say in private.
Anna Quindlen in the July 23 Newsweek was among the first of my column-writing colleagues to make a strong appeal for Clinton to “make it your business to persuade Barack Obama to be your running mate.”
Since Quindlen’s piece, Clinton is looking even stronger in national polls and focus groups, although her lead over Obama and the third-place challenger, former Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, is whisper thin in critical Iowa, where the first caucuses are to be held.
Nevertheless, as voters and caucusgoers weigh their decisions, the prospect of a Clinton-Obama ticket is viewed with appeal by some and dread by others.
“Conventional thinkers like to make this sound risky, pairing a woman and a black man on the ticket,” Quindlen wrote in her open letter to Clinton. “But … anyone who would be put off by Obama isn’t going to vote for you [Clinton] in the first place.”
That’s a reasonable point, but call me a conventional thinker.
Clinton and Obama might be able to forge an effective campaign partnership with each other, although that’s a big unknown.
More important, conventional political wisdom says you don’t load up your political ticket with unpredictable unknowns and, let’s face it, there are few factors that are harder to predict than race and gender.
As a journalist, I’d love to cover the Clinton-Obama team against any comers. Journalism thrives on conflict between feisty players. But, considering the public’s ability to take only so much change at a time, even in a campaign that espouses change, I doubt that Clinton would want to double her risks.
Traditional political wiseguys would advise her to balance her ticket. If you’re a pioneer by race, ethnicity, gender or any other perceived constituency, you don’t team up two groundbreaking pioneers on the same ticket. Instead, you balance your ticket with an agreeable white male.
Or maybe a candidate of Hispanic descent like New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson, with his strong crossover appeal and golden resume as a diplomat. Considering Clinton’s reputation as a polarizing candidate, she could use a good diplomat on her team.
Conservative pundits such as Pat Buchanan taunted Democratic presidential nominees to nominate Rev. Jesse Jackson as their running mate after Jackson’s strong, if largely symbolic, presidential runs in 1984 and 1988. But since it did not take a genius to figure out that Jackson had no chance of being picked, those conservatives sounded like they were trying to drive a wedge between Jackson’s supporters and the rest of the Democratic Party.
So, when a Republican like Giuliani touts a Clinton-Obama ticket, it raises an intriguing question: Is he dreading the possibility or inviting it?
Giuliani often has been compared, favorably or unfavorably, to the Renaissance strategic thinker Niccolo Machiavelli. But Hillary Rodham Clinton and her chief political strategist, her husband, can be quite Machiavellian too.
That’s why I suspect legal expert Jeffrey Toobin is closer to the truth with his prediction. While promoting his latest book, “The Nine: Inside the Secret World of the Supreme Court,” he predicted that, if elected president, Clinton would offer Obama a seat on the U.S. Supreme Court.
That would be a hard offer for Obama to pass up, even though accepting it would all but rule out his running against President Hillary Rodham Clinton in 2012. As they say on a certain TV game show, what’ll it be, Senator? Deal or no deal?
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