by Christi Parsons
Barack Obama’s presidential campaign has been telling people not to pay too much attention to the polls lately, but now they’re emailing all their supporters with news of the latest survey.
In Iowa, Obama is actually leading Democratic rivals Hillary Clinton and John Edwards among likely caucus-goers, according to a new Newsweek poll. Obama scores 28 percent in that poll while Clinton gets 24 percent and Edwards has 22 percent.
The overall numbers — not specifically among voters who say they’re “likely” to go to the caucuses — are more favorable to Clinton. The poll also suggests that Clinton’s supporters may be more solidly in her camp than are backers of the other Democrats, with a larger proportion of Clinton voters characterizing their support as “strong.”
And, of course, Clinton still leads in national polls. But a letter today from Obama campaign manager David Plouffe suggests it’s the likely voters who matter.
“(W)hile the pundits focus on meaningless national polls,” says Plouffe’s email, “we are leading in the one state where the electorate is most focused on this election and where they are getting the most exposure to Barack.”
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Campaign officials are officially downplaying the idea that Obama absolutely has to win Iowa in order for his campaign to go anywhere. The candidate’s wife, however, was pretty candid on the point last week.
“Iowa will make the difference,” Michelle Obama reportedly told Iowa voters on the campaign trail. “If Barack doesn’t win Iowa, it is just a dream. If we win Iowa then we can move to the world as it should be. And we need your help in making that happen.”