by Frank James
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Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.,) a reliable conservative, is one of the most thoughtful and deliberate members of the U.S. Senate and one of its recognized foreign-policy experts as the former chair of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and now its senior Republican.
So it’s something of a watershed moment to have him say publicly, as he did tonight on the Senate floor, that the current surge is unlikely to achieve U.S. national interests in the small time window provided by domestic politics, if it ever could, and to urge the Bush Administration to immediately embark on a new strategy.
Lugar’s statesman-like warning was not just to President Bush, but to his congressional colleagues:
I speak to my fellow Senators, when I say that the President is not the only American leader who will have to make adjustments to his or her thinking. Each of us should take a step back from the sloganeering rhetoric and political opportunism that has sometimes characterized this debate. The task of securing U.S. interests in the Middle East will be extremely difficult if Iraq policy is formulated on a partisan basis, with the protagonists on both sides ignoring the complexities at the core of our situation.
Lugar said what many critics of the present strategy have, that it would likely take years not months for the current strategy of an increased U.S. and Iraqi troop presence to improve security significantly and as much time for the Iraqi political leadership to achieve the kind of understandings that would give the nation a chance of surviving as a cohesive whole.
But the political realities in the U.S. simply won’t provide enough time, Lugar said:
In my judgment, the costs and risks of continuing down the current path outweigh the potential benefits that might be achieved. Persisting indefinitely with the surge strategy will delay policy adjustments that have a better chance of protecting our vital interests over the long term.
I do not come to this conclusion lightly, particularly given that General Petraeus will deliver a formal report in September on his efforts to improve security. The interim information we have received from General Petraeus and other officials has been helpful and appreciated. I do not doubt the assessments of military commanders that there has been some progress in security. More security improvements in the coming months may be achieved. We should attempt to preserve initiatives that have shown promise, such as engaging Sunni groups that are disaffected with the extreme tactics and agenda of Al Qaeda in Iraq. But three factors – the political fragmentation in Iraq, the growing stress on our military, and the constraints of our own domestic political process — are converging to make it almost impossible for the United States to engineer a stable, multi-sectarian government in Iraq in a reasonable time frame.
Lugar’s recommended that instead of pouring more human and financial treasure into Iraq, the U.S. shift policy towards two goals that promise more long-term stability in the Middle East–working to make progress on the Israel-Arab problem and going full bore on an effort to increase U.S. energy independence.
He wasn’t advocating a complete abandonment of Iraq but rather a downsizing of U.S. effort there as American put more of its energies into tackling two more fundamental problems–the Arab-Israel problem and U.S. dependence on Middle East oil.
Lugar warned that if the U.S. doesn’t change course and soon, it will run out of time to make the adjustment he urged.
Mr. President, the issue before us is whether we will refocus our policy in Iraq on realistic assessments of what can be achieved, and on a sober review of our vital interests in the Middle East. Given the requirements of military planners, the stress of our combat forces, and our own domestic political timeline, we are running out of time to implement a thoughtful Plan B that attempts to protect our substantial interests in the region, while downsizing our military presence in Iraq.
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We need to recast the geo-strategic reference points of our Iraq policy. We need to be preparing for how we will array U.S. forces in the region to target terrorist enclaves, deter adventurism by Iran, provide a buffer against regional sectarian conflict, and generally reassure friendly governments that the United States is committed to Middle East security. Simultaneously, we must be aggressive and creative in pursuing a regional dialogue that is not limited to our friends. We cannot allow fatigue and frustration with our Iraq policy to lead to the abandonment of the tools and relationships we need to defend our vital interests in the Middle East.
If we are to seize opportunities to preserve these interests, the Administration and Congress must suspend what has become almost knee-jerk political combat over Iraq. Those who offer constructive criticism of the surge strategy are not defeatists, any more than those who warn against a precipitous withdrawal are militarists. We need to move Iraq policy beyond the politics of the moment and re-establish a broad consensus on the role of the United States in the Middle East. If we do that, the United States has the diplomatic influence and economic and military power to strengthen mutually beneficial policies that could enhance security and prosperity throughout the region. I pray that the President and the Congress will move swiftly and surely to achieve that goal.
Coming from someone like Lugar, this speech only increases the pressure on the president to think beyond the surge. And it is likely to give other Republicans who might’ve been hesitant to openly criticize the current Iraq strategy the push they need to come forward with their own demands for a changed strategy.
For Democrats, Lugar’s speech can only serve as an encouragement for them to keep the pressure on the president and hope that Lugar will help them get enough votes in the Senate to at least override a presidential veto of future efforts to enact a timeline for withdrawing U.S. troops from Iraq.