1. Tony Stewart
No. 20 Chevrolet
The overwhelming favorite. As near a lock as you’ll find in restrictor-plate racing. The best driver who hasn’t won the Daytona 500, but he senses this will be his day.
2. Jeff Gordon
No. 24 Chevrolet
Must pick his way from a tail-end start, a penalty for a minor technical infraction. Once he gets to the front, the three-time winner of this race will be a factor as always.
3. Dale Earnhardt Jr.
No. 8 Chevrolet
Hasn’t led a lot in preliminary races but may be coming in under the radar. The 2004 winner remains one of the savviest drafters in NASCAR.
4. Juan Pablo Montoya
No. 42 Dodge
Formula One defector has made a superb transition to Cup cars that weigh twice as much and aren’t as sensitive. Already has the touch for restrictor-plate racing, as he showed by leading his 150-miler before mechanical failure.
5. Jimmie Johnson
No. 48 Chevrolet
Crew chief Chad Knaus will have the car perfect for race day. Defending champion may not be a match for Stewart one on one, so chances of repeating would increase should Stewart falter.
6. David Gilliland
No. 38 Ford
Pole-sitter is “Cinderella Man” and “Seabiscuit” rolled into one. At 30, he’s a formidable threat, with inexperience the only question.
7. Kevin Harvick
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No. 29 Chevrolet
Like the man he succeeded in Richard Childress Racing, the late Dale Earnhardt, it’s a matter of when, not if, Harvick can put together a solid 500 here.
8. Kurt Busch
No. 2 Dodge
He could be the sleeper. If the top cars are taken out by a big pileup, Busch could be the best of the rest.
9. Denny Hamlin
No. 11 Chevrolet
Second-year driver proved his plate-racing ability right out of the gate last year, winning the Bud Shootout of ’06. A dark horse.
10. Matt Kenseth
No. 17 Ford
Crew chief Robbie Reiser has been suspended, but Johnson won last year’s 500 with his crew chief absent. Kenseth is savvy at plate racing.