The question about the Bears is the same now as it was before the season: Who’s going to scare you?
The Bears were hoping it would be Rex Grossman, but in a different context. But the question is who scares the other teams.
For the Bears, the answer is clear. It’s two rookies, Devin Hester and Mark Anderson. That they play special teams and defense rather than offense makes the Bears slightly different from the other playoff teams.
In big games, big plays make as big a difference as they do in little games. If you don’t make them, you have to stop them.
You might think the focus and intensity of the playoffs would automatically limit big plays. The Bears found out differently last year on 58- and 37-yard touchdown catches by the Panthers’ Steve Smith. The Bears made no plays on offense or defense of more than 27 yards. Their longest play of the day was Rashied Davis’ 31-yard kickoff return.
From Smith’s big plays to the Super Bowl-record 75-yard run by the Steelers’ Willie Parker, explosiveness characterized another postseason.
Hester is by far the Bears’ biggest threat. The Bears scored 17 touchdowns on plays of 30 yards or more, six on Hester returns. Receiver Bernard Berrian had four 30-plus scores, three in the first four games. Mark Bradley had two and Thomas Jones, Muhsin Muhammad and Desmond Clark one apiece, the same as cornerbacks Ricky Manning Jr. and Charles Tillman.
In the four first-round games last week, there were four scoring plays of 30-plus yards. That’s behind the pace of the last three postseasons, when there were 44 scoring plays of 30 or more yards in 33 games.
In those three postseasons plus last week, special teams accounted for only five touchdowns. There were more defensive touchdowns (seven) than touchdowns on special teams, so it’s more realistic to hope for big plays from Hester than to rely on them, although the only kick return for a touchdown last week came against the Seahawks, who ranked 27th in covering kickoffs.
Without Hester’s returns, the Bears quite possibly are a 10-6 team rather than 13-3.
Anderson is a pass rusher with the capacity to affect games the way Richard Dent did, but it’s prudent to have a lead before counting on the defense to make big plays.
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Linebackers Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs cause teams to account for their speed and playmaking. Between them they have one sack, five interceptions and five forced fumbles, so they didn’t exactly wreak havoc in 16 games.
Urlacher and Briggs have scored no touchdowns, which is not their primary job despite coach Lovie Smith’s hopes and dreams.
Offensive players are the ones paid to make big plays, and the question remains: Do the Bears have enough big-play offensive players?
Against the Seahawks, the answer looks more promising than it might against any other team the Bears could face.
This season, Jones outrushed the Seahawks’ league MVP from last year, Shaun Alexander, who missed the October game at Soldier Field with a foot injury. Alexander did score seven touchdowns to Jones’ six, but Alexander’s longest run of the season is 33 yards. Jones and Cedric Benson each have 30-yard longs. Will any of them scare a defense this postseason?
None of them looks as explosive as the Eagles’ Brian Westbrook and the Saints’ Reggie Bush, and nobody in the league can touch the Chargers’ LaDainian Tomlinson.
At receiver, the Bears have two deep threats in Berrian and Bradley, which may be two more than the Seahawks can boast if injury eliminates Darrell Jackson, whose 10 touchdown catches include a 72-yarder.
Deion Branch’s longest reception for the Seahawks is 38 yards, but when he played for the Patriots he was a playoff phenomenon, a Super Bowl MVP who has games of 153, 143 and 133 yards and catches of 73, 60 and 52 yards in the last three postseasons. Truly scary.
The scariest receivers are playing elsewhere this weekend, including the Colts’ Pro Bowl duo of Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne.
Saints rookie Marques Colston is the most prolific wide receiver left in the NFC, and his teammate Devery Henderson averaged a whopping 23.3 yards on 32 receptions.
Seahawks tight end Jerramy Stevens didn’t catch half as many passes (22) as the Bears’ Desmond Clark (45) during the season, but he scored two touchdowns last week against the Cowboys.
Both rank behind the Chargers’ Antonio Gates, the Ravens’ Todd Heap, the Patriots’ Ben Watson, the Eagles’ L.J. Smith and the Colts’ Dallas Clark on the scare meter.
Of the eight quarterbacks left, five threw at least twice as many touchdown passes as interceptions this season: Peyton Manning (31-9), Tom Brady (24-12), Philip Rivers (22-9), Drew Brees (26-11) and Jeff Garcia (10-2). Three didn’t: Steve McNair (16-12) and the two who will face off Sunday, Matt Hasselbeck (18-15) and Grossman (23-20).
Lovie Smith is the only NFC coach left with a defensive background, but it’s more hopeful than practical to plan for your guys to outscore the offenses of Mike Holmgren, Andy Reid or Sean Payton.
As the leading sacker left in the NFC, Anderson will get plenty of attention from the Seahawks, particularly Walter Jones, the outstanding left tackle who was rudely introduced to Anderson in October.
The Chargers’ Shawne Merriman (17) and the Ravens’ Trevor Pryce (13) have more sacks than Anderson, and a lot of defensive linemen in the playoffs have more sacks than any of the Bears’ starting front four.
Cornerbacks Tillman, Manning Jr. and Nathan Vasher more than hold their own in the NFC defensive big-play department. In the AFC, the Patriots’ Asante Samuel (10 interceptions), and the Ravens’ Chris McAlister (6), Ed Reed (5) and Dawan Landry (5) all have at least as many as Tillman and Manning Jr. (5 each).
The Bears led the league in defensive takeaways, however, with 44. That’s four more than the Ravens, who did lead the league in turnover differential at plus-17. The Chargers are at plus-13 and the Bears and Patriots are at plus-8.
If the Bears are to succeed in the playoffs, it looks like their best chance for big plays remains with defense and special teams. That’s just fine with Lovie Smith, but he wouldn’t mind having other options.
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