Don Pierson sizes up the conference semifinals.
Saturday: Colts at Ravens
The Colts opened the 2005 season at Baltimore with a 24-7 win, their defense forcing four turnovers. But that was before the Ravens got quarterback Steve McNair from Tennessee.
Kyle Boller and Anthony Wright shared the Ravens’ quarterback chores against Peyton Manning and couldn’t match up.
The Ravens didn’t have the league’s No. 1 defense last year either. After their disappointing 6-10 season, linebacker Ray Lewis complained that he needed better players around him, especially up front.
The Ravens listened, adding nose tackle Haloti Ngota in the first round of the draft and safety Dawan Landry in the fifth round. Both have been outstanding rookie contributors to a defense that is better than the Bears’ in most statistical categories.
The Colts’ defense can tell you all about statistics. Chastised for having the 32nd-ranked run defense in the league, the Colts shut down the Kansas City Chiefs and held 1,800-yard rusher Larry Johnson to 32 yards.
The Ravens’ 60 sacks rank second in the NFL while the Colts have allowed just 15 sacks, best in the league.
Pierson’s pick: Ravens 19-17.
Saturday: Eagles at Saints
On Oct. 15, the Saints beat the Eagles 27-24 at the Superdome when Drew Brees led a 10-point comeback in the fourth quarter. Donovan McNabb was quarterbacking the Eagles before his injury paved the way for Jeff Garcia, who has won six games in a row.
Brees hit 27 of 37 passes for 275 yards and three touchdowns. Deuce McAllister ran for 64 yards, and Reggie Bush added only 25 in 11 carries plus 35 yards on four receptions.
Brian Westbrook led all rushers with 72 yards.
Both teams were 4-1 entering the game, so the win established the Saints as a bona fide contender in the NFC.
Pierson’s pick: Saints 28-21.
Sunday: Seahawks at Bears
When the Bears pummeled the Seahawks 37-6 on Oct. 1 at Soldier Field, they had safety Mike Brown and defensive tackle Tommie Harris. Both are out for the season.
The Seahawks were playing without injured running back Shaun Alexander and tight end Jerramy Stevens.
This time the Seahawks will be playing without regulars at cornerback, but Alexander and Stevens are back.
Quarterback Matt Hasselbeck’s passer rating was 39.7; Bears quarterback Rex Grossman’s was 100.5. Hasselbeck threw two interceptions; Grossman two touchdown passes.
Pierson’s pick: Bears 24-17.
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Sunday: Patriots at Chargers
These teams last met Oct. 2, 2005, in Foxboro, Mass. The Chargers trounced the Patriots 41-17, but it seems like New England coach Bill Belichick sets these things up. After that embarrassment, he will have to make no motivational talks.
Although LaDainian Tomlinson ran 25 times for 134 yards and two touchdowns, the Chargers weren’t the same team they are now. Their quarterback was Brees, whose 28-yard touchdown pass to Reche Caldwell late in the third quarter put the Chargers ahead 31-17.
That same Caldwell now happens to be Tom Brady’s top receiver with the Patriots.
Brees is in New Orleans, leaving the Chargers in the capable but inexperienced hands of Philip Rivers, who will be making his first playoff start against a defense that feeds on young quarterbacks. Patriots safety Rodney Harrison, a former Charger, will try to play after missing Sunday’s game against the Jets and most of the season with injuries.
Pierson’s pick: Patriots 24-23.
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