President Bush says it’s not true, but recent events related to Iraq indicate the Bush administration is leaning toward the George Aiken option: Declare victory and come home.
Aiken is the late Republican senator from Vermont who is credited with offering that advice early on during the Vietnam War. It could have saved Americans and the Vietnamese a lot of grief.
A number of observers in recent years, including your humble columnist, have suggested a similar answer to our worsening no-win situation in Iraq. The White House has not listened, and the Iraq debacle has sunk deeper into what looks like a civil war.
But recent events indicate that, despite Bush’s mantra about “staying the course” in Iraq, he’s looking for an exit strategy.
Former Secretary of State James Baker, a savvy negotiator and reliable Bush family friend, has re-emerged as the Republican co-chairman, with former Indiana Rep. Lee Hamilton, a Democrat, of the bipartisan Iraq Study Group. With the administration’s support, the congressionally mandated group was created in March to reassess the war and come up with suggestions.
Baker and Hamilton say the group is withholding its report until after the November election. But Baker’s remarks in recent interviews offer important hints.
More Top Picks Best Hisense Tvs
For example, Baker teased us Sunday in an interview on ABC with this: “I think it’s fair to say our commission believes that there are alternatives between the stated alternatives–the ones that are out there in the political debate–of `stay the course’ and `cut and run.'”
Amid the cacophony of Washington’s polarized shouting matches, Baker’s words sounded like the voice of reason that Americans took for granted in the years of President George H.W. Bush. Baker stood with the elder Bush against those who wanted the U.S. to invade Baghdad during the Persian Gulf war, in defiance of the UN mandate. The regional instability that Baker feared from such an invasion has happened with today’s Iraq war.
Obviously the younger Bush should have listened to Baker’s advice before embarking on his Iraq adventure. Instead, he went along in the heat of post-Sept. 11, 2001, passions with Vice President Dick Cheney and other eager neo-conservatives who thought American soldiers would be greeted with flowers and candy.
Author-journalist Bob Woodward and other close observers say the younger Bush steadfastly avoids turning to his dad for advice, despite his father’s superior international expertise. Yet, despite the younger Bush’s often-repeated vow to stay the course, he also says he is willing to “change tactics” in Iraq if the Baker-Hamilton group recommends it.
If so, the Baker group could offer cover for the younger Bush to do something he is loath to do in public: change his mind.
His promise to stay the course until “the job gets done” could undergo subtle alterations. If Baker’s group defines a new “job” for America in Iraq, it could be accomplished in whatever way the president says it should. Americans could declare victory and come home.
But what next? If Bush’s softened stance offers a light at the end of Iraq’s long, dark tunnel–to borrow a Vietnam-era metaphor–let us hope the light is not that of an oncoming train.
In interviews, Baker has rejected a quick withdrawal from Iraq, fearing “the biggest civil war you’ve ever seen.” Unfortunately, mounting casualties amid factional fighting indicate Iraq is in a civil war and it’s getting worse.
Iraq’s best direction may come through a partitioning of the country among its dominant Sunni, Shiite and Kurdish ethnic factions. President Bush rejected that option this week in expressing his support for Iraq’s embattled Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
That’s just as well, because an American endorsement of partitioning would doom its acceptance by Iraqis and their regional neighbors. Yet, Baker is right to hint that Americans cannot be the sole deciders of Iraq’s future. Whether in war or in peace, Iraq’s future ultimately must be decided by Iraqis.
———-
Clarence Page is a member of the Tribune’s editorial board. E-mail: [email protected]