Election experts say Illinois is one of the few states where a Texas-style congressional redistricting is even a possibility, based on Wednesday’s Supreme Court ruling.
Illinois Democrats, they note, now have unified control of government, which they did not have during the last post-census redistricting when Republican George Ryan was governor.
But Tim Storey, a redistricting expert at the National Conference of State Legislatures, said Illinois Democrats, like leaders in other states, may not have the stomach for the fight.
The Texas redistricting battle, after all, was nasty. Democratic state legislators fled Texas to deprive Republicans of a quorum; then-Rep. Tom DeLay used federal resources to track them down, for which he was admonished; feelings between the parties were raw and bruised, and newspapers editorialized against the redistricting.
“Legislators in Springfield have to say, `We watched this thing play out in Texas in terms of the publicity, the potential voter outrage, and do we want to buy that trouble?'” Storey said.
In addition, the current Illinois map is the product of negotiations between state Democratic and Republican leaders, designed in large part to protect incumbents of both parties. And few are likely to want to upset that arrangement. Democrats hold a 10-9 advantage in the state’s delegation
But Storey noted that if the Democrats gain enough seats in November’s congressional election to significantly close their 15-seat gap with the Republicans in the U.S. House, that could increase the pressure on Illinois Democrats to redistrict in an attempt to give the party a few more seats in Congress.
“They may get squeezed by Democratic Party leaders in Washington, especially if the House tightens up in the fall, which it’s expected it to do,” Storey said.
More Top Picks Best Mechanic Tool Sets For Older Men
———-