Psssssst! Don’t tell anyone. I heard what the Bulls are going to do in the draft and in free agency.
The word is–Can you hear me? I’m whispering now–they’re going for University of Washington guard Brandon Roy and Portland Trail Blazers center Joel Przybilla as priorities.
Of course, last week it was LSU’s Tyrus Thomas and the week before Texas’ LaMarcus Aldridge. And the Bulls won’t work out or talk to the top players until after the draft camp that starts Tuesday in Orlando, so it’s way too early for anyone to know what will happen.
But the possibility of the Bulls drafting Roy is growing stronger, and it hardly would be second-guessed, even though much of the talk among NBA executives the last few months was that big guys would dominate the top of the draft.
“Roy is this year’s Chris Paul if he starts,” one general manager said last week. “When it’s all said and done, he’s the rookie of the year. He doesn’t quite have NBA three-point range yet, but he’s got everything else and is ready to go.”
In an evolving NBA that favors perimeter players, it can hardly be a mistake to select a guard.
The notion was the Bulls are small on the front line and most of the guys playing there now are free agents who might not be back. So selecting someone like Aldridge or Thomas seemed to make the most sense. And it wouldn’t be a mistake if the Bulls do.
Last week I suggested the Bulls should trade the No. 2 pick, which Seattle would use on Roy, and a player–probably Michael Sweetney–to Seattle for Ray Allen. The truth is, because of parity in the NBA, the Bulls are closer to postseason success than they appear. But you don’t see many teams deep in the playoffs filled with rookies and young players. As great as Dirk Nowitzki has been, it took him eight years to reach the NBA Finals.
So let’s assume the Bulls use the pick. A look at general manager John Paxson’s history suggests Roy would be a logical choice. Paxson has been very good in the draft in selecting Kirk Hinrich, Ben Gordon and Luol Deng. Hinrich and Gordon were regarded as can’t-miss players–not necessarily can’t-miss stars, but they’d been in college several years and had played in many big games.
Deng was just a freshman but was considered exceptionally mature. Not regarded as a great athlete with a big upside, he was less a risk because he was considered a solid basketball player. Paxson has gone with players who understand the game over those with big potential.
That suggests he’s less likely to get someone like Tracy McGrady or Kobe Bryant, but also not likely to make a big mistake. When the Bulls chose Deng, there was considerable debate about whether to select Andre Iguodala, a better athlete. Paxson opted for the player he saw as more complete, even if his ceiling was said to be lower. That could be the case with Roy, who seems to do just about everything well. Paxson never has been a big risk taker, especially as a player. But he was always reliable, smart and unafraid. Teammates and coaches would beg him to shoot more because he was such a good shooter. But Paxson often turned down shots because he didn’t see himself as open as he could be. He almost never forced a shot hoping it would go in. He wanted to be certain first. And he wanted to fit with the team.
Roy would be a good fit as the kind of big guard who could take defensive responsibilities from Hinrich and fit easily into a three-guard rotation with Gordon. Then you add a big guy like Przybilla for more muscle on the front line and wait until 2007.
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It’s hard to see the Knicks as a playoff team with their instability, and the Bulls have the right to swap No. 1 picks. The 2007 draft could be one of the best ever for big men if several underclassmen declare, such as Ohio State’s Greg Oden, Florida’s Joakim Noah and Washington’s Spencer Hawes. It could set up the Bulls as the team to beat in two years.
Of course, I’ve got three more weeks to come up with different–and, of course, better–plans.