For a clue to how difficult, dicey and crazy Sunday’s Indianapolis 500 could get, listen to Danica Patrick.
“It’s always nice when it’s easy–like last year,” she said.
Think about how far from easy last year was for her.
Arriving as the most competitive female driver ever at Indy, she struggled daily through deluges of media and mobs of admirers, simply to practice and qualify.
She started and finished fourth, best ever for a woman, and was rookie of the year.
But all of that was easy compared with this time. She has struggled with her Panoz-Honda all month, with practices regularly shortened by cool, cloudy, rainy days. She had to work hard just to get the 10th starting spot.
Now, capricious weather may make the event “a crapshoot” for all 33 drivers, said Patrick’s team owner, Bobby Rahal.
Temperatures near 90 are forecast, and could make the track the hottest–and, therefore, slickest–in the memory of any active drivers.
There will be “slippin’ and slidin’,” said Michael Andretti, who’ll start 13th in his comeback after a two-year retirement. “Loose, push.” Those are racers’ terms for, respectively, the rear end sliding out, or the front end refusing to turn.
“It’s guesswork on the setups,” Rahal said. “If it’s as hot as they say it’s going to be, it’ll be totally different from any day we’ve had this month, and these cars are very sensitive to that.
“I think you’re going to see a lot of guys who are up front go to the back very rapidly, and some guys in the back go up to the front.”
And there’s another ingredient for trouble, said Sam Hornish Jr., who will start on the pole with a qualifying speed of 228.985 m.p.h. for Roger Penske, who’s seeking his 14th Indy victory as a team owner.
Thiago Medeiros, who will start 33rd, qualified at only 215.729 m.p.h.
So with the cars in race trim, “you’ll see some guys running in the 220s and some running 208,” Hornish said. “So the closing rates will be pretty big.”
The speed disparity “is going to create challenges we haven’t seen as much before,” Rahal said.
That’s euphemism for this: If the slower cars don’t keep out of the way, or the faster drivers don’t pay close attention far ahead, the fast cars could run right over the slow ones.
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The myriad treacherous conditions should give an advantage to veterans, but Andretti thinks his 19-year-old son, Marco, the most heralded rookie in the race, just might be able to handle it.
“He’s got really quick hands, and he’s really quite good at handling a car that’s on edge,” Michael said of Marco, who becomes the third-generation Andretti driver to race here. Grandfather Mario Andretti remains an Indy legend.
“He may be able to handle it and not even know it’s that bad,” Michael Andretti added. “Ignorance may be bliss.”
Patrick should be able to deal with the conditions too, Rahal said.
“Danica is much more prepared for this race than she was a year ago,” Rahal said. “Being competitive in this race isn’t based on speed, it’s based on experience.”
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Ed Hinton’s drivers to watch
In order of best odds
Helio Castroneves
Starting position: 2nd
Odds: 7-2
The Penske cars have dominanted practice and qualifying, and this two-time Indy winner is too cool to lose without a pit mistake or getting caught in someone else’s crash.
Sam Hornish Jr.
Starting position: 1st
Odds: 4-1
He will lead a lot of laps, as he always does, and really should win going away. Trouble is, his luck here has been atrocious, a la the Andrettis.
Tony Kanaan
Starting position: 5th
Odds: 5-1
The best, smartest, most aggressive driver in the field, he’s sort of a professor to every other driver here. He’s the most overdue for a win, but that will depend on luck, car and crew.
Dan Wheldon
Starting: 3rd
Odds: 5-1
Has switched teams since his victory here last year, but the little Englishman remains fearless, flawless and brilliant at strategy.
Michael Andretti
Starting position: 13
Odds: 7-1
To read his eyes and hear his voice is to know he’s every bit as determined on this comeback, after two years of retirement, as he was in his prime.
Buddy Rice
Starting position: 14th
Odds: 9-1
2004 winner missed last year with a broken back. Danica Patrick’s teammate is usually cool but could be overly aggressive this time trying to outshine her.
Danica Patrick
Starting position: 10th
Odds: 11-1
Still the hands-down star of the race, but she will have to work harder, with less car, to do as well as her fourth-place finish last year.
Marco Andretti
Starting position: 9th
Odds: 14-1
The only driver other than Patrick who could rocket this race back to the pinnacle with a victory. It all depends on how a rookie can handle a hot day and a very slippery track.
Tomas Scheckter
Starting position: 11th
Odds: 18-1
Absolutely the most exciting driver here, all-out, all the time, doesn’t play well with others, thus has ended up with a mediocre team. Son of former F1 champion Jody Scheckter.
Bryan Herta
Starting position: 16th
Odds: 20-1
Steady California veteran is just the type to go aggressive, if attrition offers him a window to a dark-horse victory.
The lineup
Sunday at noon (WLS-Ch. 7)
Car number in parentheses; r-rookie
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ROW 1
1. (6) Sam Hornish Jr. 228.985
2. (3) Helio Castroneves 228.008
3. (10) Dan Wheldon 227.338
ROW 2
4. (9) Scott Dixon 226.921
5. (11) Tony Kanaan 226.776
6. (4) Vitor Meira 226.156
ROW 3
7. (55) Kousuke Matsuura 225.503
8. (8) Scott Sharp 225.321
9. (26) r-Marco Andretti 224.918
ROW 4
10. (16) Danica Patrick 224.674
11. (2) Tomas Scheckter 224.659
12. (20) Ed Carpenter 224.548
ROW 5
13. (1) Michael Andretti 224.508
14. (15) Buddy Rice 224.393
15. (90) r-Townsend Bell 224.374
ROW 6
16. (7) Bryan Herta 224.179
17. (27) Dario Franchitti 223.345
18. (52) Max Papis 222.058
ROW 7
19. (51) Eddie Cheever 222.028
20. (91) r-P.J. Chesson 221.576
21. (14) Felipe Giaffone 221.542
ROW 8
22. (92) Jeff Bucknum 221.461
23. (41) Larry Foyt 221.332
24. (21) Jaques Lazier 221.151
ROW 9
25. (5) Buddy Lazier 220.922
26. (17) Jeff Simmons 220.347
27. (31) Al Unser Jr. 219.388
ROW 10
28. (12) Roger Yasukawa 218.793
29. (88) Airton Dare 218.170
30. (97) Stephan Gregoire 217.428
ROW 11
31. (61) r-Arie Luyendyk Jr. 216.352
32. (98) P.J. Jones 215.816
33. (18) r-Thiago Medeiros 215.729
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