I may owe Shaq an apology. I’m debating it, but more on him later.
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This first-round Eastern Conference playoff series between the Bulls and Heat isn’t over, even with Miami up 2-0 with Game 3 here Thursday. Everyone knows a playoff series really doesn’t start until the home team loses a game.
But in this case, if the home team loses the next game, fans can start trying to pronounce the name of Andrea Bargnani.
Not that 2-0 means everything in a seven-game series, though more than 90 percent of those ahead 2-0 go on to win. The odds didn’t equate for the Bulls last April against the Wizards, and the Bulls have found themselves in this kind of hole before, coming home down 2-0 in the playoffs and winning.
Of course, that was with Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen. It was the 1993 Eastern Conference finals, and that John Starks dunk in the face of Jordan in Game 2 was the last smile the Knicks had.
Actually, this team doesn’t seem as sure of victory as that Knicks team was, which probably is a bad thing for the Bulls.
“[Game 3] is very critical [for us],” said Udonis Haslem, who returns from his one-game suspension for throwing his mouth guard in the opener. “This team is pushing us to the edge every game. They still [seem] confident. If they win a game, their confidence can go through the roof. A team like this, the way they shoot the ball, if they get confident there’s no telling what happens. They may start making shots from halfcourt. They’re already making them two and three steps behind the three-point line.”
With Alonzo Mourning likely still out with a calf injury, Haslem returns as the Heat’s best defensive player.
It’s likely he will spend some time on Andres Nocioni, who is averaging 24 points and 11 rebounds over the two games.
The Heat had one of its most impressive games with Haslem out for Game 2, perhaps in part, because he was sidelined.
Though there have been questions this season about the Heat changing to slashing scorers like Antoine Walker, Jason Williams and James Posey over spot-up shooters such as Eddie Jones and Damon Jones to complement O’Neal, playing smaller in Game 2 and spreading the court worked well.
The Heat hit six three-pointers in running up a franchise-high 68 first-half points on the way to 115, one fewer than its playoff record. By halftime, three Heat players had scored in double figures. By game’s end Walker, Posey and Gary Payton also had double figures for a team-record six.
“I don’t know if there is a way [to stop me],” O’Neal said Wednesday before the team left for Chicago. “I’ve seen all types of defenses, and one conversation that [coach Pat] Riley and I had last summer was to get some guys who could shoot the ball and some guys who could be able to finish, and that’s what he did. If Antoine and Jason and Posey are going to keep shooting like that, I’m going to keep looking for them.
“I’m on a mission every time I come out in the postseason. So the big issue is getting my guys looking for me and I’m looking for my guys. We’re just going to continue doing what we do. If they don’t double, it’s vital that I go to work. If they do double, I’ll kick it out to my guys and hope they’re hitting their shots.”
Many had wondered whether Walker and Williams could produce, but with Posey, they combined to make 8 of 19 threes in Game 2.
That’s one reason I liked the Bulls game plan better in Game 1.
It generally is assumed around the NBA that O’Neal must be double-teamed, but I’m not convinced. At least not this O’Neal.
O’Neal is averaging an impressive 24.5 points and 11.5 rebounds on 63 percent shooting in this series. He’s even shooting 73 percent on free throws. The Heat’s inside scoring has remained dominant, 52-30 in Game 1 and 54-30 in Game 2.
I still want to see if he can go for that 35 points and 20 rebounds. Maybe he doesn’t need to against this Bulls team, but when O’Neal has won championships he has averaged around 30 points and more than 12.5 rebounds. In 2003, when his Lakers went out in the second round, and in 2004, when the Lakers lost to the Pistons in the Finals, O’Neal averaged 21.5 points and 13.2 rebounds.
The Bulls’ double-teaming of O’Neal in Game 2 wasn’t desperate, but it also wasn’t particularly effective. The Bulls do not double-team much, which I applaud. Ask your players to play defense and stop relying on so much help. But when you ask them to do something they don’t do often, it’s difficult and it should be no surprise if it is not effective.
I would like to see the Bulls stay in single coverage, though it hardly seems fair to the likes of Michael Sweetney, Tyson Chandler and Malik Allen.
One difficulty O’Neal has had is working under the new rules, which Riley and I agree are not administered fairly toward him. He takes more banging and bumping without calls than anyone. His composure is remarkable. But the rules remain: If he turns and tries to go through a defender, he’s going to be called for a charge. Protect the baseline spin and make him step away from the basket into the lane for a short shot. Let him try to beat you with those. It’s worth the chance.
I also liked the Bulls’ original plan to run O’Neal. When he scores, take the ball out and throw it downcourt fast. He doesn’t like to change ends quickly. Make him run. Keep moving him side to side on screens and get him tired and hope he commits a lazy foul or two. Without Mourning, the playing field changes when O’Neal is out–though I have to admit I’ve been surprised how effective Michael Doleac has been.
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The Heat seem to get the edge now with two-day breaks before Games 3 and 4. O’Neal’s history shows better production after two days off than one. Bulls in six, as I predicted, seems a tougher task. And so far O’Neal is showing he’s better than the model we saw for the last six months.
“It’s no secret the Bulls have no one to guard him down low,” Dwyane Wade said. “He can dominate the game that way. He’s in great shape. He’s really in playoff mode. We want him to lead this team and have everyone in double figures surrounding him making sure he continues to be dominant.”
I’m coming awfully close to agreeing.
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