THURSDAY’S GAMES
Penn State (8) vs. Northwestern (9)
This is a bad draw for the Wildcats (14-14, 6-10), who will have trouble countering the Nittany Lions’ athleticism. When they met in January in Evanston, Penn State (14-14, 6-10) dominated the boards and won by four. In the February rematch in State College, the Nittany Lions outscored NU by 20 from the free-throw line and won by 13. It’s never easy to beat a team three times in one season, but it should happen here.
Winner: Penn State
Michigan (7) vs. Minnesota (10)
Minnesota (14-13, 5-11) has lost three straight and has only one conference road win, at Penn State. It is clearly a tougher out in the comfy confines of its Williams Arena. The Wolverines, despite their late swoon, are the more talented group and have a mature point guard in senior Daniel Horton. Look for him to steady his team, which can be far better than its mediocre conference record (18-9, 8-8).
Winner: Michigan
Michigan State (6) vs. Purdue (11)
The Spartans (20-10, 8-8) lost forward Matt Trannon to a broken jaw, forward Marquise Gray to a broken foot and five of their last seven games to finish a pedestrian sixth in the Big Ten. Their bench is thin, their offense can stagnate if not allowed to run and their scoring comes only from the triumvirate of Shannon Brown, Maurice Ager and Paul Davis. But they still will be too much for the Boilermakers (9-18, 3-13), who are seeded 11th for a reason.
Winner: Michigan State
FRIDAY’S QUARTERFINALS
Ohio State (1) vs. Penn State (8)
The Buckeyes (23-4, 12-4) beat the Nittany Lions by 35 in Columbus and by 11 in State College, and they should have no trouble dominating them again. They could do it with their shooting, which they did in the first game by hitting 50 percent of their threes. Or they could do it with their size, which they did in the second by grabbing 10 more rebounds than their hosts.
Winner: Ohio State
Wisconsin (4) vs. Indiana (5)
The Badgers (19-10, 9-7) dominated the Hoosiers (17-10, 9-7) in Madison, the only time they faced each other in the regular season. But that game was played amid the furor surrounding the future of Indiana coach Mike Davis, who soon announced he would be leaving at season’s end. His team, relieved of the pressure of trying to save his job, has won four of five since that announcement. It also has more talent than Wisconsin, which depends too much on the considerable skills of forward Alando Tucker.
Winner: Indiana
Iowa (2) vs. Michigan (7)
Greg Brunner’s right leg injury Saturday appeared not to be serious, which is reason enough for the Hawkeyes (22-8, 11-5) to have hope. He is their one irreplaceable part, the guy who gives them toughness as well as points and rebounds. They dominated the Wolverines when they met in Iowa City, winning in early February by 28, yet it is good to remember they were impregnable in Iowa City, finishing the year with a 17-0 home record. But here the Hawkeyes are not at home, which is reason enough to look for an upset.
Winner: Michigan
Illinois (3) vs. Michigan State (6)
The Illini (25-5, 11-5) already have defeated the Spartans twice this season and in both games Dee Brown simply dazzled. There is no reason to think that pattern will be broken here, especially with Michigan State coming off a game on Thursday. Its bench is unreliable and virtually non-existent, its starters are forced to play huge minutes and its legs are sure to be leaden by the time this one rushes to its conclusion.
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Winner: Illinois
SATURDAY’S SEMIFINALS
Ohio State (1) vs. Indiana (5)
An intriguing matchup of teams that surround one big man with four athletic wings who are able to shoot and create. The Hoosiers’ big man is 6-foot-8-inch Marco Killingsworth, who has proved he can score. But his moves are one-dimensional, his defense is weak and he tends to tire and fade late in big games. The Buckeyes’ big man is 6-9 Terence Dials, who has been far more consistent and a force all season.
Winner: Ohio State
Illinois (3) vs. Michigan (7)
After his team fell in Ann Arbor in late February, Illini coach Bruce Weber bemoaned its lack of growth during the season. His players responded by ripping then league-leading Iowa in Champaign and by winning two straight on the road, which is not an easy feat to complete. The newfound maturity they manifested in those victories will help them here and so will this. Horton outplayed Brown in that game in Ann Arbor, which makes this one the place for some payback.
Winner: Illinois
SUNDAY’S CHAMPIONSHIP
Ohio State (1) vs. Illinois (3)
These teams met just once in the regular season and the Buckeyes simply strafed the Illini in Columbus, where they hit 56.5 percent of their threes (13 of 23) and won by a comfortable 16. But defense has been Illinois’ calling card all season, and here it will reassert itself and better challenge OSU’s shooters. Brown, himself stymied in Columbus (12 points, 5-for-13 from field), will dazzle in his final conference game and lead the Illini to a surprising win.
Winner: Illinois
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Big Ten tourney records
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ALL-TIME RECORDS
TEAM W-L
Illinois 16-6
Iowa 10-7
Michigan State 8-6
Wisconsin 9-7
Ohio State 8-7
Indiana 7-8
Minnesota 3-6
Northwestern 4-8
Penn State 4-8
Purdue 3-8
Michigan 2-6
PAST CHAMPIONS
2005: Illinois 2001: Iowa
2004: Wisc. 2000: MSU
2003: Illinois 1999: MSU
2002: OSU 1998: Mich.
RECORD BY SEEDS
NO REC NO. REC
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#1 9-6 #7 5-8
#2 14-4 #8 7-7
#3 6-8 #9 5-8
#4 6-7 #10 4-7
#5 3-8 #11 3-8
#6 12-6
Source: Big Ten
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