The NFL coaching upheaval benefits the Bears in more ways than one. Of their 16 opponents next year, 11 will have new head coaches, new offensive coordinators or both.
Only three of the coaching counterparts Lovie Smith will face have more tenure than he does: Seattle’s Mike Holmgren, New England’s Bill Belichick and Tampa Bay’s Jon Gruden.
With defensive coordinator Ron Rivera back, the Bears will have continuity in head coaching and both coordinators.
The NFL scheduling formula sometimes punishes successful teams with tougher schedules, but because the Bears play the weak NFC West next year, their schedule actually could be easier.
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Based on this season’s results, the Bears of 2005 played teams with a winning percentage of .457. Next season’s schedule includes teams with a winning percentage of .445. The Bears played five games against playoff teams and seven against teams with winning records. Next year it’s only four games against 2005 playoff teams and seven against teams with winning records.
If the Bears’ vaunted defense gets better results against the better quarterbacks, the Bears should have little trouble making the playoffs.
This season they played only five quarterbacks ranked among the top half of the league in passing. They lost to all of them: Cincinnati’s Carson Palmer (2), Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger (3), Minnesota’s Brad Johnson (11), Carolina’s Jake Delhomme (12) and Washington’s Mark Brunell (13).
The Bears’ defense was resting when Johnson beat them, and they did beat Delhomme in the regular season. They also lost to Cleveland’s Trent Dilfer (22).
Next season they will play only six quarterbacks ranked among the top half, assuming the quarterbacks remain the same, which they won’t: Seattle’s Matt Hasselbeck (4), St. Louis’ Marc Bulger (5), New England’s Tom Brady (6), Minnesota’s Johnson (11), Arizona’s Kurt Warner (14) and Buffalo’s Kelly Holcomb (15).
The others on tap: Tampa Bay’s Chris Simms (19), New York Giants’ Eli Manning (23), New York Jets’ Brooks Bollinger (26), Detroit’s Joey Harrington (27), Miami’s Gus Frerotte (28), Green Bay’s Brett Favre (31) and San Francisco’s Alex Smith (unranked).
Culpepper watch
Minnesota’s Daunte Culpepper could be following Randy Moss out of town. He’s coming off a knee injury. He’s not in the West Coast mold new coach Brad Childress prefers. He still has the Love Boat mess hanging over his head. He wants more money.
Culpepper claims new owner Zygi Wilf promised to take a look at his contract after the season. That doesn’t mean Culpepper wants Wilf to consider a cut in pay after his six touchdowns and 12 interceptions.
Asked whether Culpepper or Johnson could end up elsewhere in 2006, Wilf said: “That’s why I’m very happy that I hired coach Childress. Because now it’s his problem. It’s not my problem anymore.”
Turner brothers
The Bears-49ers game will be the first head-to-head confrontation between offensive coordinators Ron Turner and Norv Turner since 1996, when Ron was offensive coordinator of the Bears and Norv was head coach of the Washington Redskins. The Redskins won that one 10-3, so the brothers must have been taking it easy on each other.
Norv was hired by San Francisco coach Mike Nolan last week. In 2000, Turner fired Nolan as defensive coordinator of the Redskins, but that appears to have been a forceout owner Daniel Snyder dictated.
Cowher sour
Pittsburgh’s Bill Cowher has more than one score to settle with Denver’s Mike Shanahan in Sunday’s AFC championship game. Shanahan beat Cowher in Pittsburgh in the AFC championship after the 1997 season. Cowher also was an assistant coach in Cleveland when the Browns lost the AFC title in 1986 on “the Drive” by Denver’s John Elway and again to the Broncos in 1987 on “the Fumble” by Earnest Byner. The offensive coordinator for those two Denver teams? Shanahan.
Sorry, Mr. Levy
Marv Levy, 80, wanted to coach the Buffalo Bills, but he couldn’t talk owner Ralph Wilson, 87, into it.
“It’s a lot of pressure, a lot of pressure,” Wilson said. “I want him as GM. That was our agreement from the start, and it still is.”
The kid
Two AFC East games between Levy and 35-year-old Eric Mangini, youngest coach in the league, would have been marvelous theater. Like Levy, the Jets’ Mangini had to overcome ageism.
Cornerback Ty Law, who plays for the Jets and used to play for the Patriots when Mangini was secondary coach, said: “I knew the age thing was going to come up, but he’s qualified. You look at Bill Cowher, Jon Gruden, even coach [Bill] Belichick when they started. They were young. I think when you coach as long as he has under coach Belichick (10 seasons) and had the type of players he has, like myself, Lawyer Milloy, Rodney Harrison and Otis Smith, and still be an authoritative figure and someone who we respected, that says a lot.
“If you’re good, you’re good. It’s like someone saying you’re too young to be a good quarterback. If you’re good, you’re good.”
Is Law looking forward to playing for Mangini?
“It’s going to be a business decision,” he said.
Law is due an $11 million bonus in March, which means he must renegotiate.
Mangini said he and Belichick would remain close. Belichick hasn’t yet been consulted on how close.
After Mangini completed an interview with the Jets and got back to the Patriots’ offices, he found his key card to open the office doors no longer was operable.
Boding well
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Red-zone defense is the most consistent predictor of recent Super Bowl winners. The last five Super Bowl winners ranked among the NFL’s top four in red-zone defense. No other statistical category on either side of the ball produces that kind of uniformity.
The red-zone defense rankings of the remaining playoff teams: Seattle (2), Carolina (3), Pittsburgh (10), Denver (28).
A look at recent Super Bowl winners and where they ranked in this important category: 2004 Patriots (3), 2003 Patriots (4), 2002 Bucs (1), 2001 Patriots (3), 2000 Ravens (2), 1999 Rams (23), 1998 Broncos (3) and 1997 Broncos (10).
The 1997 Broncos beat the Green Bay Packers, who ranked ninth in red-zone defense. The 1999 Rams beat the Tennessee Titans, who ranked 20th in red-zone defense.
This is not convincing to Bears fans, of course. The Bears ranked first in red-zone defense all year.
Scheming
Seattle changed all the hand signals in its offense this week for fear Carolina cornerback Ken Lucas, a former Seahawk, would remember them.
“That is no big deal,” Seahawks quarterback Matt Hasselbeck said. “They were kind of stale anyway. They needed to be changed.”
Disturbing pattern
Why the Steelers lose: In the 1995 Super Bowl, quarterback Neil O’Donnell threw three interceptions. In the 1997 AFC title game, quarterback Kordell Stewart threw three interceptions. In the 2001 AFC title game, Stewart threw three interceptions. In the 2004 AFC title game, Roethlisberger threw three interceptions.
Four games. Three quarterbacks. Twelve interceptions. No victories.
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