Baseball falls into offensive recession

In the seventh inning of a game last week, Colorado Rockies star Todd Helton strode into the batter’s box at Coors Field as his statistics flashed on the scoreboard.

As the No. 3 hitter for a team that plays half its games in a hitter’s paradise, Helton’s numbers are reason for concern: .307 average, 17 home runs, 66 RBIs heading into the weekend.

That used to be a nice resting spot at the All-Star break, not in mid-September. But Helton hardly is alone among stars with hollow bats in 2005.

Ichiro Suzuki, who pounded out a record 262 hits last season, was batting .299, compared with .375 at this point last season. Catchers Mike Piazza and Ivan Rodriguez, who redefined hitting at their position, had combined for 29 homers in 828 at-bats. Homers, runs and the number of .300 hitters have declined from a year ago.

Executives, players and coaches cite two major reasons: steroid testing and better pitching led by a crop of young arms.

“The game has changed dramatically,” Rockies general manager Dan O’Dowd said. “Runs are at a premium. There is a difference in the bulk of the statistics across the board.”

Reacting to public pressure and threatened government intervention, Major League Baseball stiffened its stance on performance-enhancing drugs. It’s no coincidence, said some big-leaguers, that hits and homers have dropped.

“The ballparks haven’t changed,” San Diego Padres closer Trevor Hoffman said. “They’ve all got smaller for years because everyone in the game wanted more offense. To me what you are seeing is indicative of the testing going on.”

Shrinking sluggers created a buzz in spring training. Six months later, only 23 qualifying hitters were hitting at least .300. At this time last season, there were 36. In the American League, home runs have slipped by 6.6 percent. In the NL, by 10.4 percent.

“Maybe the numbers were just so skewed for years that they are finally coming back into line,” said Rockies special instructor and former big-leaguer Walt Weiss. “But I would definitely agree that testing is a part of it.”

Others scoff at this explanation. Arizona slugger Luis Gonzalez wasn’t buying the argument, citing the cyclical nature of the sport that has routinely gone through dead-ball and rabbit-ball eras.

“You just never know what’s going to happen from year to year, or even game to game,” Gonzalez said. “That’s what makes baseball so great. To say it’s because of hitters [not taking steroids], well, there’s been a lot of speculation that pitchers were using them too. I just think it’s one of those years.”

Some prefer to credit better pitching, in particular an array of impressing young starters.

“I wouldn’t say it’s a trend because it’s only one year, but I’m all for it,” Rockies reliever Mike DeJean said. “Pitchers have been taking a beating for 15 years.”

Consider 2005 the year of the counterpunch. A year ago, Minnesota was the only AL team with an ERA under 4.00 with two weeks left in the season. There were five teams this season, all below 3.72 in a comparable number of games.

The NL also has seen falling ERAs, with six teams below the 4.00 threshold, compared with five last season.

The shift toward pitching, not yet seismic, has become detectable to general managers whose job it is to stock rosters. O’Dowd said the change will affect how he evaluates free agents this winter. A player who hit .300 with 30 homers and 100 RBIs matters again.

“If you go back and look at the way baseball was 20 to 25 years ago, those numbers meant something,” O’Dowd said. “Maybe we are getting back to that. For kids to see that, I think it makes the sport more appealing because those statistics are more realistic.”