A confidential British military assessment examines the possibility of slashing troop strength in Iraq by the end of next year–to 3,000 from about 8,500 now–in a memo leaked to the newspaper The Mail on Sunday. The memo also raises the possibility of a sharp drop in the number of troops the United States and other allies have in Iraq by the middle of 2006.
John Reid, Britain’s defense minister, confirmed the document’s authenticity Sunday but said it was one of a number of papers setting out scenarios for a transfer of security responsibilities to Iraqi forces. Pentagon officials and Reid emphasized that no final decision on troop levels or timetables for withdrawal has been reached.
The document, titled “Options for Future U.K. Force Posture in Iraq,” lays out a potential “halving” of costs of about $1.8 billion a year for Britain in such troop cuts. It also refers to “strong U.S. military desire” to hand over control to Iraqi forces in 14 out of 18 provinces. However, the document said, while planners at the Pentagon favored a “relatively bold reduction,” U.S. commanders in Iraq are urging caution.
On Sunday, several Pentagon officials said the British memo, which appears to have been written at least a month ago, was accurate in describing the desire among American officials to reduce force levels next year–if security conditions and the performance of Iraqi security forces improve.
Despite recent pressure from Congress to discuss possible force reductions, American officials have been reluctant to discuss timelines for withdrawals, arguing that to do so would encourage Iraqi insurgents.
“I wouldn’t want to predict when the conditions could be such that U.S. forces would be able to be there in smaller numbers,” said Bryan Whitman, a senior Pentagon spokesman.
He said that the British memo’s assertion that “emerging U.S. plans” envision steep troop reductions in 2006 “is not inconsistent with the goal.” But he added, “With respect to timelines, I wouldn’t want to speculate.”
The United States has about 140,000 troops in Iraq, according to the Pentagon. The British memo discusses a possible reduction in overall troop strength, including the United States and its allies, to 66,000 from 176,000 in 2006.
Reid issued a statement Sunday saying that Britain would keep its troops in Iraq, where they are concentrated around the southern port of Basra, “for as long as is needed.”
“No decisions on the future force posture of U.K. forces have been taken. But we have always said that it is our intention to hand over the lead in fighting terrorists to Iraqi security forces as their capability increases,” the statement said. “We therefore continually produce papers outlining possible options and contingencies. This is but one of a number of such papers produced over recent months covering various scenarios. This is prudent planning.”