Northwestern vs. Michigan
Records: Northwestern, 14-15, 6-10 in Big Ten; Michigan, 13-17, 4-12.
When they met: After losing 71-61 at Michigan on Jan. 12, Northwestern won 69-53 at home on Feb. 26.
Tournament history: Michigan won the inaugural tournament in 1998 and reached the semifinals last year. Northwestern never has made it past the quarterfinals.
Story line: The Wildcats have to make it to the final to have any hope of earning a bid to the NIT. Decimated by injuries and the suspension of star guard Daniel Horton, Michigan has lost 12 of its last 13 games.
Ones to watch: Northwestern forward Vedran Vukusic is one of the conference’s best all-around players. With Horton absent, guard Dion Harris has become the focal point of the Wolverines’ offense.
Wildcats win: If their Princeton offense is operating efficiently and provides them with a lot of easy baskets. Guards Tony Parker and Mohamed Hachad must have their acts together and play up to their capabilities.
Wolverines win: If they make their foul shots and the Wildcats demonstrate why they were the Big Ten’s worst free-throw shooting team.
What we see: The Wildcats will win. It has been an up-and-down season for Northwestern, but the losses in the last two months have taken a toll on Michigan’s self-confidence.
Iowa vs. Purdue
Records: Iowa, 19-10, 7-9; Purdue, 7-20, 3-13.
When they met: After winning 71-57 at home on Jan. 22, Iowa lost 66-63 at Purdue on Feb. 16.
More Top Picks Best Flexible Seating For Special Education Classrooms
Tournament history: The Hawkeyes won the 2001 tournament and were runners-up in 2002. The Boilermakers’ best showing came in the 1998 inaugural when they lost to Michigan in the championship game; in the last four years they have been ousted in their opening game.
Story line: Hawkeyes were 11-1 in non-conference play but got off to a bad start in the Big Ten. It got worse after their best player, Pierre Pierce, was kicked off the team. They recovered to win their last three and should get an NIT bid. This tournament will end Gene Keady’s 25-year reign as Purdue’s coach and he would love to pull off an upset before he goes.
Ones to watch: Iowa forward Greg Brunner can score and is the conference’s second-leading rebounder. Purdue guard Brandon McKnight is a double-digit scorer, productive passer and solid defensive player.
Hawkeyes win: If Brunner and guards Adam Haluska and Jeff Horner continue their strong all-around performances.
Boilermakers win: If David Teague and McKnight hit a high percentage of their outside shots and underachiever Matt Kiefer and improving Gary Ware dominate Iowa’s foul-prone centers.
What we see: The Hawkeyes will win, but don’t appear capable of winning four straight as they did in 2001.
Ohio State vs. Penn State
The records: Ohio State, 19-11, 8-8; Penn State, 7-22, 1-15.
When they met: Ohio State won both games, 68-62 on Jan. 26 and 66-56 on Feb. 12.
Tournament history: Buckeyes won the 2002 tournament and lost to Illinois in the 2003 title game. The Nittany Lions upset top-seeded Ohio State to reach the 2000 semifinals and they upset No. 2-seed Michigan State to reach the 2001 semis.
Story line: Ohio State, playing under a self-imposed postseason ban for NCAA rules violations, is sky-high after bringing down top-ranked and previously undefeated Illinois in the last game of the regular season. This is the Nittany Lions’ worst season since they came into the conference in 1992-93.
Ones to watch: Ohio State center Terence Dials is the league’s finest low post player. Penn State center Aaron Johnson leads the league in rebounds with an average of 9.9 per-game and in double-doubles with 11.
Buckeyes win: If they pick up where they left off against Illinois–playing strong defense, having no turnovers in the second half and making a high percentage of their shots.
Nittany Lions win: If Ohio State has a letdown after Sunday’s upset. If Johnson is able to neutralize Dials and if Buckeyes’ outside shooting game turns cold there could be another huge upset, and this time the Buckeyes won’t be celebrating.
What we see: Ohio State will win. Thad Matta is too good a coach to let the Buckeyes get caught off guard. Of the first-day teams, they have the best chance of reaching the semifinals.