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Maybe it’s Ned Flanders, the always-smiling neighbor who yells out, “Hi-diddly-ho!”

Maybe it’s Mr. Burns’ lackey, Smithers.

Maybe it’s the bitter Patty Bouvier, Marge’s sister and Homer’s nemesis.

“The Simpsons” is jumping head-first into America’s gay marriage debate when a character comes out–and gets married.

Not since “Who shot Mr. Burns?” has a topic so captivated the show’s viewers.

“Simpsons” producers haven’t revealed which character turns out to be gay, but that hasn’t stopped fans from speculating or placing bets on whom it might be. Patty Bouvier, the chain-smoking, raspy-voiced sister of Marge who has rarely dated men, seems to be the leading contender–one Web betting site, paddypower.com, stopped taking wagers because so much money was being placed on her.

But before spreading more idle gossip, let’s deal in facts. Here they are, as determined by literally hours of dogged reporting (a call to Fox): A “Simpsons” character will come out and be married by Homer, who becomes an Internet minister because he thinks he can make money by marrying gay couples. The nuptials will be televised Feb. 20.

Now, back to the gossip. From here on, we’re trafficking in guesses, rumor, innuendo, hints and allegations. You have been warned.

When “Simpsons” creator Matt Groening announced in August that a character would come out this season, early speculation focused on Waylon Smithers, the neat, bow-tied, doll-collecting assistant to Mr. Burns, owner of the nuclear power plant. Indeed, the evidence has been increasing over the show’s 16 seasons.

Let’s go to the tape: In the third season, when the power plant is 90 seconds away from a core meltdown, Smithers says to Mr. Burns, “Sir, there may never be another time to say I love you, sir.”

Burns responds, “Oh, hot dog! Thank you for making my last few moments on earth socially awkward.”

The consensus among fans is that a Smithers outing would be disappointing. As Nate Kushibo, moderator of “The Simpsons” e-mail listserv, wrote in an e-mail to The Baltimore Sun: “If it turns out to be Smithers, the only bit of newsworthiness would be that there are still people in America who think that a 40-something unmarried man who collects Barbie-like Malibu Stacy dolls, goes on Caribbean trips with male friends and visits leather bars simply hasn’t found the right woman yet.”

Other candidates include Moe, Patty and Ned Flanders. Long shots might also include pals Lenny and Carl or Willie the Groundskeeper.

In any case, “Simpsons” executive producer Al Jean warns that the show could be changed at the last minute and is not in its final form. The episode has been in the works for about a year, since San Francisco decided to allow gay and lesbian couples to marry (a move later overturned by the California Supreme Court) and several other cities followed suit.

“We thought it would be an interesting thing for Springfield to do,” Jean says, adding that the town splits into pro- and anti-gay marriage camps. “Lisa thinks it’s good for civil rights. The reverend of the local Protestant church is opposed to it. Other people think tourists will come to town. Mayor Quimby wants the money. We don’t take a position as much as explore everybody’s positions.”

“The Simpsons” has featured at least one openly gay character in the past: John, a kitsch collector played by Baltimore filmmaker John Waters, appeared in an episode from Season 8 called “Homer’s Phobia.” Waters’ character befriends the Simpson family, but Homer worries about his influence on Bart. John finally wins Homer over by rescuing him and Bart from a band of marauding reindeer. In the end, Homer tells his son, “Any way you choose to live your life is OK with me.”

It wouldn’t be the first gay wedding on television. “Friends,” “Roseanne” and “Northern Exposure” all featured gay weddings, or at least commitment ceremonies. But none of those programs showed the classic wedding moment–the kiss. Fans expect a kiss on “The Simpsons,” partly because it’s animated and can get away with more than non-animated shows.

” ‘The Simpsons’ could make a strong political point that the networks would never dare in a sitcom,” says Larry Gross, a communications professor at the University of Southern California and author of “Up from Invisibility: Lesbians, Gay Men and the Media in America.” He says a gay wedding on the show is significant–with or without a kiss.

“It’s part of the peculiar status of television in American culture,” Gross says. “It’s the common ground on which we all discuss issues, whether it’s race or feminism or sexuality. And the fact they’re discussed in this venue is already a marker of where the culture is moving.”

– – –

Who could it be now?

Barkeeper Moe

Famous for making a drink called the “Flaming

Moe.” However, in one recent episode, he

was spotted with Nelson the bully’s mother.

Patty Bouvier

Marge’s sister. When her sister Selma was

looking for a husband to start a family, Patty

showed no interest. When Homer, naked,

runs by the sisters in one episode, Patty says,

“There goes the last lingering shred of my

heterosexuality.”

Groundskeeper Willy

Wears a kilt, single, buff.

Ned Flanders

Choreographs the Super Bowl halftime show

Sunday. Has also worn his late wife’s dress

while mowing the lawn.

Lenny and Carl

The two inseparable buddies work with

Homer at the nuclear plant.

Duff Man

Well-muscled spokesman for Duff Beer. Clearly spends a

lot of time at the gym.

Wears a cape.

Waylon Smithers

In one episode, he dances with the Village People on top of a

submarine, singing “In the Navy,” and is shown to have a shirtless Burns as the screen-saver on his home computer. He’s

also been spotted rollerblading in Springfield’s gay neighborhood and has been known to wear a pink robe.