Bernard Hopkins is on an 11-year unbeaten streak that includes 18 middleweight title defenses. Oscar De La Hoya has lost three of his last nine fights and looked unimpressive in narrowly winning his middleweight debut three months ago.
That seems to give Hopkins the edge in their multimillion-dollar title showdown Saturday night. But there are reasons De La Hoya, who won a lesser middleweight title by beating Felix Sturm on June 5, can wrest the other three title belts from Hopkins.
For starters you have to acknowledge his is the more impressive list of foes–victories over Rafael Ruelas, Julio Cesar Chavez, Pernell Whitaker, Ike Quartey and Fernando Vargas and close losses to Felix Trinidad and Shane Mosley. Hopkins’ best-known opponents were Trinidad, whom he beat, and Roy Jones Jr., one of two fighters to beat him.
Next you have to believe what De La Hoya and his team are saying about his 11-week training camp. Namely, that:
– It was isolated from outside distractions, including his wife, so he could focus as never before.
– He sparred more rounds, including a full 12 rounds on four different occasions, than in previous camps to build the stamina that deserted him late in recent fights.
– He is in shape to fight every one of the 12 rounds scheduled against Hopkins.
And you have to believe that in watching tapes of Hopkins’ 12th-round knockout of Trinidad in 2001, De La Hoya saw “many flaws where I thought my style can beat his style.”
He spoke as the man who lost a close decision to Trinidad in 1999 in a fight he was winning until he retreated in the final three rounds, seemingly running on empty.
This week that memory left him running down a checklist of what he needs to do to beat Hopkins.
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“Stamina will not be a problem,” De La Hoya said. “Stamina is covered. Speed is covered. Hands and legs are covered. Power will come.”
Even those who believe the 31-year-old’s assessment that the 39-year-old Hopkins “doesn’t have my legs, doesn’t have my quickness” may doubt De La Hoya has the power to seriously hurt Hopkins.
On the other hand, Hopkins has not shown the raw one-punch knockout power that could undo the talented De La Hoya if he can move at long range and outjab his opponent to set up his best power punch, the left hook. Hopkins’ best deterrent likely would be to get inside and brawl, using his strength advantage and persistence to wear down his foe.
Neither fighter ever has been knocked out, so conditioning and stamina should be critical. Despite his age, Hopkins figures to enter the ring, as always, in superb physical shape. But every fighter’s age eventually shows in the ring, and De La Hoya’s foot speed and hand quickness could accelerate that aging process.
Unlike the Trinidad fight, where De La Hoya’s superior boxing skills and movement against a fellow welterweight were appreciated by the judges only until he backpedaled in the late rounds, those same skills could be viewed more favorably against a bigger foe, a natural middleweight.
“There is always concern about judges,” said Hopkins’ trainer, Bouie Fisher, aware that two of the three judges, Dave Moretti and Paul Smith, also scored De La Hoya’s narrow victory over Sturm.
But Fisher expects Hopkins to dominate “if we fight the fight we plan, [and if the judges then] give a decision against us, they will prove what hypocrites they are.”
Neither Fisher nor Floyd Mayweather, De La Hoya’s trainer, would dwell on their fight strategies.
But Mayweather said bluntly, “If Oscar fights Hopkins like he fought Trinidad, Oscar wins the fight.”
Presumably, Mayweather meant the way his fighter fought most of the Trinidad bout, not how he finished it.
With less than great conviction, I’m picking De La Hoya by decision.