By making his remarks here in West Virginia, though, he sent a clear signal of the race that lies ahead.
After cruising through nearly two months of primaries and caucuses, losing only three states along the way, Kerry won Illinois and went over the top in the number of delegates needed to officially win the nomination in July at the Democratic National Convention in Boston. That, however, is merely a matter of mathematics.
The general election campaign, which has been feverishly brewing for much of March, will focus on an entirely different set of numbers. While states such as Illinois, California and New York could offer dozens and dozens of electoral votes for Kerry or President Bush, it is the five electoral votes of West Virginia that could produce a far greater treasure in November.
“Why is West Virginia so important to you?” a local television news reporter asked Kerry.
“Every state is important,” Kerry replied, “but if Vice President Gore had just won West Virginia, he’d be president of the United States today.”
While Kerry and Bush will crisscross the country for the next eight months, largely following the path scripted four years ago, each state is far from equal. Illinois will be a refueling stop for campaign cash, but Republican strategists have sworn off the state as virtually unattainable for Bush, which means Kerry has little incentive to wage a full-blown competition.
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The presidential election of 2004 is likely to hinge on no more than 18 states, many of which rest in Middle America. The campaign’s footprint already is clear, considering that more money has been spent on political advertising on television stations here in Charleston in the first two weeks of March than in 30 states where the race is not expected to be competitive.
A glimpse of the political battleground unfolded Tuesday as Kerry arrived in Huntington, W.Va., to hold a town meeting with veterans. Even before he kicked off the session, the Bush-Cheney campaign launched a new television ad airing only on West Virginia stations that accused Kerry of failing to support funding for troops in Iraq.
The television commercial, which did not mention that Kerry is a decorated Vietnam veteran, labeled the Democrat as “wrong on defense.” Instead, the ad featured a list of items covered in the $87 billion Iraq funding legislation, including body armor for troops, improved health care for reservists and higher combat pay.
“Few votes in Congress are as important as funding our troops at war,” a narrator says. “Though John Kerry voted in October of 2002 for military action in Iraq, he later voted against funding our soldiers.”
In West Virginia, where 15 percent of the adult population are veterans, the ads are designed to carry a significant impact. Four years ago, Bush won the state narrowly, breaking a long-running Democratic streak, and the five electoral votes figure heavily into his re-election prospects.
Kerry explains Iraq vote
Kerry responded Tuesday by saying his vote on Iraq funding was not against the troops, but that he favored reducing tax cuts to cover new spending rather than simply authorizing additional money.
At the Charleston Civic Center on Tuesday evening, several thousand West Virginia Democrats rallied behind Kerry as he kicked off his general election campaign and expressed gratitude to voters 500 miles away.
“Forty-four years ago, West Virginia helped to send a senator from Massachusetts to the White House. I am here tonight because West Virginia can again make a difference in choosing the 44th president of the United States of America,” Kerry said. “Because tonight, Illinois has put us over the top in the delegate count and helped us to achieve our goal: a nomination marked by unity and not division.
“This night marks the opening of the general election debate about the direction of our country,” Kerry added. “America deserves more than a debate full of attacks and distortions.”
Earlier in the day, though, Kerry pointedly branded Bush as a president who has broken his word with voters. From the Iraq war to the economy to extending health-care treatment to veterans, he said, the White House has failed to deliver.
“This administration again and again and again has misled America or made promises that they were unwilling to keep or haven’t kept or broken,” Kerry said.
Those remarks, delivered in Huntington, also were designed to carry across the Ohio River to reach Ohio residents–some of the most pivotal voters of the campaign. Both parties agree there are few states that seem more critical than Ohio.
Ohio a critical state
So far this month alone, according to the independent Campaign Media Analysis Group of Arlington, Va., the Bush campaign has spent more than $657,000 on television advertising in Ohio. Only Michigan, Florida and Pennsylvania saw a higher level of Bush ads in the first two weeks of March.
Kerry has long been expecting to capture the nomination, but his campaign would not formally acknowledge the primary season had concluded until the ballots had been counted Tuesday in Illinois. To become the nominee, a candidate must win 2,161 delegates, which Kerry achieved by his campaign’s estimate.
With 70 percent of the Illinois precincts counted, Kerry had 71 percent of the vote, far outdistancing North Carolina Sen. John Edwards, who pulled out of the race this month, with 10 percent. Former Illinois Sen. Carol Moseley Braun had 5 percent and former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean had 4 percent. .
Kerry is expected to get the bulk of the state’s 156 delegates.
With two former Navy veterans from Illinois at his side, Kerry monitored the returns privately before stepping out into what his aides called a “Democratic Nomination Victory Party.”
“We will be the state that will put him in the White House this coming November,” said Rep. Nick Rahall II (D-W.Va.).
“Just as West Virginia was crucial for John F Kennedy, so is West Virginia going to be crucial for John Kerry. And he is going to win in West Virginia, my friends,” Rahall said.
– – –
Bush ads target battleground states
Strategists believe the 2004 presidential race will be aggressively waged in as few as 18 states. The placement of TV ads in March by President Bush’s campaign offers a glimpse into the political strategy over the next eight months.
BUSH CAMPAIGN AD SPENDING From March 3-13
(With number of electoral votes for each state)
State / Spending* / TV spots / 2000 Winner / Spread
Florida (27) $1,422,052 / 1,225 Bush 0.01%
Pennsylvania (21) $1,072,890 / 774 Gore 4.2%
Michigan (17) $694,433 / 599 Gore 5.0%
Ohio (20) $657,780 / 829 Bush 3.5%
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Missouri (11) $435,530 / 444 Bush 3.3%
Washington (11) $408,224 / 426 Gore 5.6%
Wisconsin (10) $404,189 / 553 Gore 0.2%
Arizona (10) $400,977 / 354 Bush 6.0%
Minnesota (10) $351,565 / 174 Gore 2.4%
Iowa (7) $275,846 / 442 Gore 0.3%
New Hampshire (4) $250,064 / 381 Bush 1.3%
Nevada (5) $205,238 / 224 Bush 3.5%
New Mexico (5) $183,606 / 206 Gore 0.06%
Maine (4) $170,848 / 168 Gore 5.0%
Oregon (7) $120,655 / 237 Gore 0.4%
Arkansas (6) $103,714 / 112 Bush 6.0%
West Virginia (5) $45,898 / 106 Bush 6.3%
Tennessee (11) $0 / 0 Bush 3.9%
*Estimated
Source: TNS Media Intelligence, Federal Election Commission
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