THE MAGICIAN
One very big reason the New England Patriots will win Super Bowl XXXVIII is that they won it all two years ago.
Back then, they were heavy underdogs, but they upset the Rams. They won’t let the Carolina Panthers do that to them.
Under coach Bill Belichick, the Patriots have been nothing if not prepared. And in big games, that means pulling off the surprises, not being the surprised.
Barring a series of strange bounces, there is only one scenario that could lead to a Carolina upset: The Panthers shut down the Patriots’ running game and the short passing game that goes with it. That allows them to mount a pass rush and force Tom Brady into some bad throws. That’s the only way.
Every other scenario leads to a New England win. It’s hard to envision Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme making many big plays against New England’s quick, suffocating defense. Stephen Davis may break a few runs, but not big ones.
The Panthers will move the ball a little, and get close enough for John Kasay to kick a few field goals to keep things interesting. But the Patriots’ defense will give their offense the ball in good field position, and Brady will make some memorable throws.
Patriots 27, Panthers 16
— Terry Bannon
THE QUARTERBACK
Inside scoop from Patriots coach Bill Belichick: “The team that plays the best game is going to win.” He said it with a straight face, not a facetious one. Furthermore, he believes it. So do the Panthers and coach John Fox.
If you equate defensive football and drab quotes with dull football, save yourself time and tune in for halftime. This could be the most defensive game in Super Bowl history. First team to 17 points declares a rout.
The Panthers have an emotional edge as hungry first-timers trying to win it for teammate Mark Fields and linebacker coach Sam Mills, both stricken by cancer before the season. The Patriots have the edge in experience and at the most important position, quarterback.
The Patriots and Tom Brady have won 14 games in a row and don’t lose close ones. The Panthers and first time quarterback Jake Delhomme also win the close ones and avoid mistakes, but Brady is more battle-tested and less error-prone than Delhomme.
Brady’s quick reads and the Patriots’ blockers must nullify the Panthers’ outstanding front four. Delhomme will try to get the ball to Steve Smith, the most explosive player in the game.
If either team can run on the other, it will be a surprise. It also would decide the outcome. More likely, special teams will play a vital role in a classic struggle for field position.
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A lopsided win by either also would be a surprise, but less so if the Patriots prevail over a Panthers collapse.
Patriots 19, Panthers 12
— Don Pierson
THE ASSISTANT
It doesn’t take a hopeless romantic to see the virtues of Romeo Crennel, but you have to wonder about the lack of sentiment from NFL general managers for the Patriots’ defensive coordinator.
Crennel might be the most qualified head-coaching candidate on an NFL sideline, and the most ignored. The fact that he remains an assistant coach should concern Commissioner Paul Tagliabue enough to reexamine league rules that limited Crennel’s availability for interviews this month.
But it’s the Carolina Panthers’ offense that really needs to worry about what to do about Crennel. Not since Yao Ming arrived in town will Houston have seen anything as imposing as the Patriots’ defense.
By Sunday night, New England coach Bill Belichick’s name will be mentioned in sentences with Lombardi, Parcells and Gibbs, but nobody should forget the forgotten genius–Crennel. It will be his defensive scheme that stops the Panthers’ potent running game, makes Carolina quarterback Jake Delhomme delirious, and keeps the game in the hands of Patriots quarterback Tom Brady.
This Brady sequel gets two thumbs-up.
Patriots 24, Panthers 10
— David Haugh
THE BIG D.
Sometimes, I hate me.
I so want to go with the underdog. I want to have the guts to say Cats yes,Pats no.
But rats, I can’t.
My gut says the Patriots are going to dine on Steak Jake Delhomme. They are going to toss Carolina linemen to the side like crates of Lipton at a Boston tea party.
They are too tough, too strong, too hard to score on, too rough and ready in the red zone.
They have too much Willie McGinest, too much Ty Law, too much Tedy Bruschi, way too much Ted Washington.
Defense wins Super Bowls. (See Jan. 26, 1986: Chicago 46,New England 10.)
Wouldn’t mind being wrong, but:
Patriots 30, Panthers 10
— Mike Downey
FATE
That constant thumping noise emanating from your television this Sunday will not be a technical problem with your set. But it will be a recurring problem for the Carolina Panthers.
The AFC champion New England Patriots did not win 14 regular-season games in a row with finesse and guile, but with aggressive, organized mayhem from their staunch defensive front and opportunistic secondary.
The Panthers intend to force-feed running backs Stephen Davis and DeShaun Foster, but the Patriots figure to have an answer that could neutralize Carolina’s most reliable weapons.
Virtually every NFL game, particularly in the playoffs, is determined by turnovers, and I like the Patriots’ chances of forcing mistakes after frustrating Carolina’s receivers. Carolina finished the regular season with a minus-5 turnover ratio, the worst of the playoff teams.
Watching New England diffuse offensive superstars Peyton Manning and Marvin Harrison of the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC championship game was impressive. They forced four interceptions by Manning.
I have seen Carolina’s Jake Delhomme, who had a nice season, and he is no Peyton Manning.
The Panthers have the unenviable task of halting the longest NFL winning streak since the 1972 Miami Dolphins won 17 straight games.
Coach Bill Belichick preaches to his Patriots to control the line of scrimmage, jam the receivers and force turnovers. He has made me a believer.
Patriots 23, Panthers 13
— Fred Mitchell
WHEEL of FORTUNE
It very well could be that every fiber of our being wants to pick the underdog. But at some point, we have to admit that our fibers don’t know what they’re talking about.
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Carolina is the underdog in this game, for a lot of reasons: The Patriots’ defense, led by nose tackle Ted Washington, is tough and smart. Coach Bill Belichick has answers for every question you can come up with, short of the ones dealing with the meaning of life.
Tom Brady is a winner.
But there’s one reason that’s hard to get past: If the Patriots were able to shut down NFL co-MVP Peyton Manning to the tune of four interceptions in the AFC championship game, how are the Panthers going to win with the unproven Jake Delhomme?
The answer is that they aren’t. As good as Carolina running back Stephen Davis is–and he’s very good the Panthers aren’t going to be able to generate much offense against a Belichick-designed defense. And with Brady trying to become the Joe Montana of this era in terms of knowing how to win, it will be a difficult proposition for Carolina.
This won’t be easy for New England, which isn’t an offensive juggernaut, but it eventually will prevail.
Patriots 14, Panthers 6
— Rick Morrissey