It was a rough year for the travel industry: war, terrorism, SARS, cruise-ship viruses, a bumpy economy. Will things be better in 2004? We’ve pulled out our crystal ball for a look into the future.
– It’s a sad truth, but people will get more and more used to the idea of violence in the world. The big explosion in Bali already seems like years ago; the ones in Turkey are fading fast. One small silver lining: Maybe Americans will start paying more attention to international news.
– Last-minute deals will continue to be huge. Few travelers plan their trips more than three months in advance, and many go within a couple of weeks of planning–and the Internet has made it a breeze to find fire sales.
Here’s a tip we’re going to see more travelers use: Go to a cybercafe while on the road to book luxury hotel rooms at budget prices just a few days before rolling into town. You can be totally spontaneous while still snagging great deals.
– The weak dollar means that Americans are getting smarter about visiting Europe in the off-season. Air fare and packages can still be really cheap. Air fare under $200 to London or Ireland, $349 for air and six nights in London, etc. Also, because regular hotels above two-star level are rarely available for less than $100 these days, savvy travelers are turning to cheaper, more culturally intriguing alternatives, such as small family-run bed-and-breakfasts or agritourism farm stays, both of which ring in for around $30 to $60 for a double room.
– Americans will also get wiser about visiting places where the dollar is strong–right now, that means South America, particularly Argentina and Brazil. Devalued South American currencies have kept such formerly pricey destinations as Buenos Aires well below budget level for more than a year now, and people are finally catching on and booking vacations there.
– Though people seem to be traveling more than they did two years ago, the bigtime crowds still aren’t going to Asia and Africa with any frequency, so we should continue to see deals there.
– The adventure travel trend seems to be cooling down, probably because of all the craziness in the world (you can get enough of an adrenaline rush just reading the newspaper).
When times are tough, people want to travel to relax in a pretty place and maybe learn a little bit about somewhere interesting.
– We’ll see even more activity on the no-frills/low-cost airline front. United’s Ted offshoot is starting in ’04, and Virgin is planning to enter the U.S. market as well (even American Airlines, which had always said it would never go low-cost, no longer rules it out). It’s been huge in Europe, and now low-cost airlines are cropping up everywhere from Southeast Asia to the Middle East. One-way flights costing well under $100–and taking just an hour or two versus the 12 hours the same trip takes by train–will become the norm.
– We’ll likely see even more turbulence in the airline industry. While some airlines are flirting with financial ruin, air fares are going to start rising a little as business travel picks up again. And as the no-frills airlines gain more ground, they’ll force the big carriers like United further into a corner. Witness the turf war about to erupt between US Airways and Southwest in Philadelphia.
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– New Zealand and Australia are going to continue to build on their popularity, as will South Africa. Antipodean destinations are attractive, not just because they’re exotic and affordable–once you get there–but because they’re far away from the world’s trouble spots.
– Expect a Chinese travel boom: More and more Westerners, hearing what a wonderful cultural experience it is to visit China, are going to pack their bags and go. And as China’s middle class grows, they’ll start traveling in numbers never before seen. (At least the travel industry hopes so!)