When it comes to predicting postseason futures and picking Super Bowl teams, you need cold, hard facts. So let’s crunch some numbers and examine some trends from past Super Bowls, then apply them to the 12 playoff teams this year.
First, think defense. Better yet, think points allowed, the most important defensive stat.
Each of the last 10 Super Bowl winners boasted defenses that ranked in the top eight based on points allowed.
Nine of those 10 Super Bowl-winning defenses ranked in the top six. Three ranked No. 1 and six ranked in the top four.
Take a closer look at the defenses from the last three Super Bowl winning teams.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers allowed a league-low 196 points–just 12.25 per game–during their 2002 Super Bowl season.
One year earlier, defensive guru Bill Belichick’s New England Patriots ranked sixth, allowing 17 points per game. The Patriots ranked 24th overall on defense based on yards allowed. They bent but rarely broke, which is what matters most.
In 2000, the Baltimore Ravens held their opponents to 10.3 points per game, No. 1 in the league.
Yes, it’s a cliche, but defense does win championships.
The 2002 Bucs, 2001 Patriots and 2000 Ravens were far from offensive juggernauts. The Ravens went one five-game span that year without scoring a touchdown. Yet all three teams won Super Bowls.
The previous seven Super Bowl winners–St. Louis (1999), Denver (1998 and 1997), Green Bay (1996), Dallas (1995, 1993) and San Francisco (1994) were offensive powerhouses. But they were capable of playing shut-down defense too.
Now let’s look at playoff seedings.
In the last 10 seasons, no team seeded lower than fourth has reached the Super Bowl.
To reach the Super Bowl this year, a fifth or sixth seed must win at least two and most likely three road games.
No Super Bowl champion has won three consecutive road playoff games.
Only one Super Bowl team, the 1985 Patriots, has won three straight road playoff games. The Patriots were crushed 46-10 by the 1985 Bears, who happened to own one of the best defenses in NFL history.
Now consider the importance of first-round byes. Eight of the last 10 Super Bowl champions had first-round byes. Seventeen of the last 20 Super Bowl teams had first-round byes.
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So check how the 12 Super Bowl hopefuls stack up based on defense, seedings and byes.
History tells us the No. 5 and No. 6 seeds have two chances of winning the Super Bowl: slim and none.
Yes, Baltimore (2000), Denver (1997) and the Raiders (1980) won Super Bowls as wild-card teams. But each of those teams played its playoff opener at home.
History tells us the fifth-seeded Tennessee Titans and Seattle Seahawks and sixth-seeded Denver Broncos and Dallas Cowboys will watch the Super Bowl on television.
Yes, Dallas owns the NFL’s No. 1 ranked defense based on yards allowed.
Yes, Denver owns the No. 4 ranked defense and surged down the stretch.
Yes, Tennessee has quarterback Steve McNair, the co-MVP.
Even for those three teams, winning three straight road playoff games is next to impossible. The Seahawks face even longer odds.
Say goodbye.
That leaves eight teams: New England (No. 1 seed), Kansas City (2), Indianapolis (3) and Baltimore (4) in the AFC; Philadelphia (1), St. Louis (2), Carolina (3) and Green Bay (4) in the NFC.
Now let’s see where those eight teams rank on defense, based on points allowed.
New England ranks No. 1 (14.9 points per game), Baltimore No. 6 (17.6) and Philadelphia No. 7 (17.9).
Carolina is No. 10 (19.0), Green Bay No. 11 (19.2), St. Louis No. 17 (20.5), Kansas City No. 19 (20.8) and Indianapolis No. 20 (21.0).
Kansas City and St. Louis have first-round byes but poor defenses that save their worst for the road.
Adios.
Carolina and Green Bay have decent defenses but no byes. Indianapolis has a bad defense and no bye.
Forget about it.
Baltimore has a very stingy defense but no bye.
Not likely, although the 2000 Ravens rode defense and running back Jamal Lewis to a Super Bowl title as a wild card.
Consider Baltimore this year’s Super Bowl dark horse.
But here’s the most logical conclusion: New England will meet Philadelphia in Super Bowl XXXVIII.
Both teams have stingy defenses. Both teams have first-round byes.
What’s more, both teams have home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, although that edge hasn’t meant as much recently as it did in the past.
Four of the last six Super Bowl champions won conference title games on the road: Tampa Bay beat Philadelphia last year, New England beat Pittsburgh in 2001, Baltimore beat the Raiders in 2000 and Denver beat Pittsburgh in 1997.
How did those four teams survive on the road?
It’s called defense. It wins championships.