As the NFL playoff picture comes into focus, the future of coaches becomes blurry.
Unlike college, NFL coaches don’t leave for better jobs; they get fired when they fall short of the playoffs. Sometimes they even get fired after they fall short in the playoffs. Steve Mariucci was fired by the San Francisco 49ers last season even after winning his first playoff game. Tony Dungy was fired the season before by Tampa Bay after making the playoffs for the third straight year.
Mariucci and Dungy had made the playoffs four of their six seasons on the job, so NFL coaches realize they work in an unforgiving business.
As the New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles and Kansas City Chiefs clinched playoff spots, the jobs of eight coaches, including the Bears’ Dick Jauron, remained tenuous, even though three of them won Sunday.
– Dave Wannstedt. The Miami Dolphins are still in the wild-card playoff race, but expectations are higher in Miami. Their loss Sunday to New England enabled the Patriots to clinch the AFC East. The Dolphins would be on the road in the playoffs, which might be a good thing because they’re 5-2 on the road, 3-3 at home.
– Jim Fassel. The New York Giants were in the Super Bowl three seasons ago and in the playoffs last season, but with fans walking out of Giants Stadium, owner Wellington Mara admitted his disappointment. Former Bill Parcells assistant and Jacksonville coach Tom Coughlin already is being touted for the job. Fassel, who was Vince Tobin’s offensive coordinator in Arizona in 1996, is being mentioned for the Arizona job.
– Dave McGinnis. The Cardinals switch coaches more than any other franchise. McGinnis has lasted 3 1/2 seasons.
– Marty Schottenheimer. He has been in San Diego only two seasons, twice as long as his previous stint, in Washington.
– Bill Callahan. Only one season removed from the Super Bowl, the Oakland Raiders are acting like they have yet to be introduced to their coach, who said their mistakes made them “the dumbest team in America.”
– Gregg Williams. The Buffalo Bills are 17-28 in three seasons under Williams. Their offense has been awful, but a strong finish could save him.
– Dan Reeves. Another coach with Super Bowls on his resume is sub-.500 after seven seasons in Atlanta. The return of Michael Vick could save him, but owner Arthur Blank, who inherited Reeves, already has been apologizing to fans.
– Jauron. When Wannstedt got a sixth season out of the Bears in 1998, his record for his first five seasons was 37-45, including one playoff victory and one loss. Jauron is 33-45 with one playoff loss and three games to play in his fifth season.
The Chicago link to the endangered coaches is purely coincidental. McGinnis turned down an offer to follow Wannstedt before Jauron took the Bears’ job. Fassel was a 1972 Bears draft choice. Callahan grew up in Chicago.
Eight coaching changes would be normal. There were only five last season, but there were seven after or during the 2001 season, eight after 2000, seven after 1999 and nine after 1998.
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Home field: First-round byes in the playoffs are vital. If the Patriots win out against Jacksonville at home, the Jets on the road and Buffalo at home, they will wrest the AFC home field from the Kansas City Chiefs on the strength of better conference record. The Chiefs completed their AFC games at 10-2; the Patriots are 8-1.
The Patriots beat Tennessee 38-30 in Foxboro, Mass., on Oct. 5. In four home games since then, the Patriots have allowed only three field goals and have two straight shutouts. Nobody wants to make that trip.
Indy plan: Here’s how the 10-3 Indianapolis Colts can beat out the 11-2 Chiefs for the second bye:
The Colts win out against Atlanta and Denver at home and Houston on the road. The Chiefs beat Detroit and the Bears at home but lose Dec. 20 at Minnesota. The 13-3 ties would be broken by records against common opponents. The Colts would be 5-0 and the Chiefs 4-1.
Packer path: It’s going to be hard for the 7-6 Packers to catch the 8-5 Minnesota Vikings in the NFC North, but the Packers still have a very good shot at a wild-card spot.
Although the Packers are sitting seventh in the six-team format, they are in good position to catch two teams ahead of the them–the 8-5 Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys.
The Packers finish at San Diego and at Oakland and have Denver at home. The Cowboys have lost three of four and finish at Washington, get the Giants at home and are at New Orleans. The Seahawks are 1-5 on the road but have to play at St. Louis and at San Francisco around a home game against Arizona. The Packers have beaten the Seahawks.
The Vikings finish at the Bears, home against Kansas City and at Arizona. If the Vikings beat the Bears, Green Bay can’t win the tiebreaker for better division record.
Bad move: When the Cleveland Browns needed a running back last season, they chose William Green over Clinton Portis, even though Browns coach Butch Davis had coached Portis at Miami. A lot of teams passed up second-rounder Portis, but Davis was the only one with insight that should have made a difference.
Green has been a bust and is currently inactive because of off-field issues. Denver’s Portis scored five touchdowns Sunday.
Sad sack: Washington Redskins 40-year-old defensive end Bruce Smith hung around long enough to take the sacks record from Reggie White (provided White, 42, doesn’t come out of retirement).
But it will never be an “all-time” NFL record unless historians study game film from before 1982, when the sack became an official statistic. Until then, Los Angeles Rams defensive end Deacon Jones and other great pass rushers of the 1950s, ’60s and ’70s can rightly point out the great big asterisk next to Smith’s name.
“I know that I’m not in second place any longer,” Smith said.
All he really knows is he’s ahead of White.