Now that the Bears are only one measly game behind the defending world champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers, what’s next?
Predict the NFL at your peril. The Bucs haven’t won two games in a row and are 1-3 at home. The defending AFC champion Oakland Raiders are 2-6 and haven’t won on the road, not even in Detroit, Cleveland or Chicago.
“Everybody has holes,” said Packers personnel chief Mark Hatley during Sunday’s 30-27 win over Minnesota.
Packers running back Ahman Green found all kinds of holes against Minnesota’s so-called improved defense. He averaged 6.5 yards a carry against the Vikings. Backup Najeh Davenport averaged 7.2. Third-stringer Tony Fisher averaged 9.5.
“If you don’t stop the run, you’re never going to win in this league,” Vikings defensive coordinator George O’Leary said. “They attacked our perimeter. We kept trying to correct it, but we couldn’t.”
Stopping the run generally is considered the first requirement of successful football. But even that isn’t entirely predictable this season. If stopping the run is so important, how come the 8-0 Kansas City Chiefs, the league’s only undefeated team, rank 24th in rushing yardage given up, 31st in average gain per rush?
How come the Indianapolis Colts, 25th in rushing, were able to outrush the Miami Dolphins, who have the No. 1 defense against the run?
The Vikings were seventh against the run until the Packers rang up 261 yards on the ground, best by a Green Bay team since 1985.
It’s still way too early to jump to conclusions about why teams are winning or losing. The NFL has become mystery theater. Not until the end does it start to make sense.
The schedule: At the halfway point, 13 winning teams are vying for 12 playoff spots. Who has the so-called easiest schedules? Based on current records before Monday night’s game, here are the winning percentage of the remaining opponents of those 13 teams: Kansas City (.390), Tennessee (.421), Indianapolis (.437), Carolina (.437), Baltimore (.461), Minnesota (.468), Seattle (.476), St. Louis (.484), Denver (.500), New England (.500), Philadelphia (.545), Dallas (.578), Miami (.578).
Miami must start its second half at Tennessee as the Titans come off their week off. The Vikings are the only team with five road games left, after losing two in a row at home.
Thumb therapy: Brett Favre underwent his own treatment for the hairline fracture under the fingernail of his right thumb less than 12 hours after beating the Vikings. He went bowhunting in the sleet and snow.
Packers coach Mike Sherman gave his players an extra day off after their victory that narrowed the Vikings’ NFC North lead to two games.
Only players who needed treatment reported to work Monday, and that didn’t include Favre, who played Sunday’s game with a plastic splint on his thumb.
“The only treatment he seems to employ is going out in the woods and going deer hunting with bow and arrow,” Sherman said. “So maybe that strengthens it.”
The possibility of surgery was raised Wednesday when Favre had a difficult time at practice, but he was on top of his game Sunday night, throwing three touchdown passes.
The tiebreaker: With fewer dominant teams, turnovers become more of a favorite subject for coaches. The 30-27 score was not a true indication of Green Bay’s superiority over Minnesota. The Packers won despite committing the game’s only turnover, an interception the Vikings converted into a touchdown. The Packers also had a touchdown pass nullified by penalty.
Why are the Chiefs 8-0? They have an NFL-leading 27 takeaways. And they have an NFL-best plus-18 turnover differential, putting them on pace for a plus-36 mark, which would be the second best in history to Washington’s unbelievable plus-43 in 1983.
The Chiefs are on pace to force 54 turnovers, which would eclipse the 2000 Ravens, who forced 49 during their Super Bowl season.
In the Chiefs’ locker room, a chart on the wall titled “Smart Football 2003” correlates the relationship between turnovers and victories. A team that finishes a game plus-1 or better wins 82 percent of the time, according to the chart, and 92 percent of the time, it becomes a playoff team.
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But turnovers alone are no guarantee of success. Last year’s Chiefs led the AFC at plus-16 but failed to reach the playoffs. Under previous coaches Marty Schottenheimer and Gunther Cunningham, the Chiefs usually were among league leaders in turnover ratio yet reached only one conference title game and no Super Bowls. Their plus-26 in 1990 is second best in NFL history, but that team lost in the wild-card playoff round.
Lost and found: If Raiders coach Bill Callahan has lost his team, as cornerback Charles Woodson contends, Vikings coach Mike Tice has found his. Despite consecutive losses that have humbled the Vikings after a 6-0 start, the way Tice confronted owner Red McCombs last week scored points with his players that should prove useful.
It turns out Tice objected to McCombs’ tirade after last week’s loss to the Giants on the spot and with passion. Tice didn’t wait until the next day to express his disappointment with McCombs’ hasty assessment that the Vikings humiliated themselves. According to sources, Tice threw things in the locker room and stood up for his players, many of whom called him later to express their appreciation.
No such luck in Oakland, where Woodson claims second-year coach Callahan is too stubborn and has lost the team. On Monday, Callahan called the comments “inappropriate and inaccurate.”
Safety Rod Woodson gave a measure of support to Callahan, saying: “As long as he comes here, he’ll find the team. I’m pretty sure you can’t lose 53 guys. We’re not playing hide-and-seek here. You never quit playing, because you play for each other.”
But when Rod Woodson found out Callahan and Charles Woodson hadn’t spoken in a month, he expressed concern.
“Well, it’s like this is your home,” he said. “He has 53 kids. You don’t ignore 53 kids. It’s not right. I wouldn’t ignore my daughter for a month.”
Said Callahan: “I’m going to continue to just emphasize how I’m going to manage this program. I’m a firm believer in the way and the course that we’re headed in. I will not waver one ounce.
“I’m going to continue to function the way I always have. I do communicate well, and I always felt that as a coach I try to enhance my communication skills with the team and talk to the team honestly and openly. Sometimes it’s brutally honest and sometimes it hurts them a little bit. … I’m not going to give in to the negativity, and I’m not going to fuel negativity with Charles Woodson.”