The computer model smiled on EMPIRE MAKER, as most human handicappers have. He is rewarded for his $1 million-plus earnings in just five lifetime starts with a very large class margin over the rest of the field. He has hit the board in each of five starts, winning three of them. That consistency earned him the highest form score. His low speed score is nothing to be alarmed about since this is the Kentucky Derby, where speed is usually vulnerability. He is a deserving favorite, but even-money horses lose more often than they win, and favorites have a particularly bad record in the Derby.
How to play this one: There is no compelling reason to bet against EMPIRE MAKER, but many people will because he’s projected to go off at a short price. A sensible approach would be wheeling him on top of several longshots in a trifecta wager. It should still pay well because of the size of the field and the evenness of all the other contenders. A wheel with EMPIRE MAKER on top of BUDDY GIL, SCRIMSHAW, SIR CHEROKEE and ATSWHATIMTALKNBOUT would probably return a nice payoff. If you believe that the pace will be hot enough, SIR CHEROKEE closed with a rush last time to win at a huge price. However, he may be everyone’s sleeper bet.
PP HORSE JOCKEY TRAINER ODDS TOTAL
12 Empire Maker Bailey Frankel 6-5 145.4
5 Peace Rules Prado Frankel 8-1 131.9
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6 Funny Cide Santos Tagg 15-1 106.4
16 Ten Most Wanted Day Dollase 6-1 98.4
8 Buddy Gil Stevens Mullins 8-1 97.1
17 Scrimshaw Velasquez Lukas 15-1 91.5
4 Atswhatimtalknbout Flores Ellis 12-1 91.4
9 Indian Express Baze Baffert 12-1 91.3
10 Lone Star Sky Sellers Amoss 50-1 88.7
2 Brancusi Farina Biancone 30-1 81.7
7 Offlee Wild Albarado Smith 30-1 80.6
15 Outta Here Desormeaux Currin 50-1 80.6
1 Supah Blitz Homeister Tortora 50-1 76.5
13 Eye of the Tiger Coa Hollendorfer 50-1 74.3
3 Sir Cherokee Thompson Tomlinson 15-1 73.6
11 Domestic Dispute Solis Gallagher 30-1 71.7
14 Ten Cents a Shine Borel Lukas 50-1 62.8
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