Buoyed by a better-than-expected upfront television season and the anticipated influx of election dollars this fall, one of the industry’s top advertising spending trackers is predicting a much healthier second half.
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At a one-day seminar in New York on Tuesday, Taylor Nelson Sofres CMR forecast a 6.2 percent increase in advertising spending in the second half. That would push overall spending up by 2.5 percent for 2002, to $109.1 billion.
But that number is tempered by the fact that the second-half projection is compared with depressed levels last year. The estimate of $109 billion in spending in 2002 would be 6.7 percent lower than dot-com crazy 2000.
The advertising industry has been in one of its most prolonged tailspins.
“We are off to a good start this year, which suggests a rebound over last year,” said David Peeler, president and chief executive of CMR. Peeler showed his findings at the first AdWatch: Outlook 2002, sponsored by Advertising Age, CMR and UBS Warburg.
Though media companies and advertising agencies are still waiting for signs of a turnaround, CMR is predicting a 5.1 percent increase in spending in the third quarter and a 7.1 percent increase in the fourth quarter. That would follow a barely noticeable 0.4 percent increase in spending in the first quarter and a 1.1 percent decrease in the second quarter.
Had there been no Winter Olympics this year, the first-half numbers would have been worse. Without the $986 million spent on the Olympics, the first half would have been down 2.2 percent.
As far as individual magazines are concerned, business-to-business magazines are expected to feel the brunt of the continued sluggishness. Spending in B-to-B publications is forecast to be down 11.4 percent in 2002.
Spanish language TV, which has been a stellar performer during the recession, is expected to see the biggest spending increase at 10.4 percent. Network TV is expected to grow 4.5 percent; spot TV, thanks in part to the November elections, is expected to see an 8.9 percent increase; and cable TV, already seeing softness in the upfront market, is expected to be down 0.3 percent from last year.
F-H promotes Hardie: Two months after losing General Manager Bob McEwen to Burson-Marsteller here, Fleishman-Hillard promoted Cynthia Hardie, deputy general manager of the office, to general manager. Hardie, who has been in the Chicago office since 1998, has been head of the company’s SBC regional account and played an integral part in getting the coveted Gatorade business.
Sponsorship extended: McDonald’s Owners of Chicagoland and Northwest Indiana this year is extending its regular season sponsorship of the Chicago Bears to include training camp, looking to take advantage of its close-to-Chicago locale. The Bears, who will play the regular season in Champaign while Soldier Field is renovated, open training camp in far south suburban Bourbonnais on July 26.
Sears taps East Coast PR firm: In one of its more important public relations decisions in recent years, Sears, Roebuck and Co., tapped New York firm Hunter Public Relations to help with PR for its full-line stores as well as provide counsel and support for community affairs programs. Hunter will help position several changes, including the introduction of new apparel brands such as Covington’s and Lands’ End. Hunter boasts a bevy of blue-chip clients, including Kraft Foods. Sears PR chief Ron Culp, in addition to hiring Hunter, continues to use several PR agencies on various projects.
StarLink lands Earthlink: On the heels of LB Works’ creative win of the $30 million Earthlink advertising business, sister Bcom3 Group Inc. media agency StarLink apparently has picked up the media portion of the business, sources said. An agency spokeswoman referred calls to the client.
On the move: Ann Janikowsky, most recently with Cramer-Krasselt, Milwaukee, returns to New Berlin, Wis.-based GMR Marketing as senior vice president of client services, reporting to Jack Rooney, executive vice president of client services. … David Haan, most recently a managing partner at Earle Palmer Brown, Philadelphia, was named president of Frankel San Francisco. He replaces Carleton Prince, who resigned last year. … Dawn Mann, who recently managed public relations programs for General Motors’ corporate marketing and advertising initiatives, joined Burrell Communications Group as vice president, group director of the engagement marketing department