As the world’s second space tourist prepares to blast into orbit Thursday courtesy of the Russians, some American experts are voicing concern that the United States is relinquishing the lead in space tourism and giving its former Cold War adversary a competitive advantage in commercial space exploration.
Others fret that the U.S. is doing too little to support the development of the next generation of reusable space ships that could carry tourists or other commercial passengers into space cheaper and faster.
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Mark Shuttleworth, 28, a South African dot-com entrepreneur, is set to blast off about 2 a.m. CDT Thursday. Russia’s space agency will take the businessman to the International Space Station on a Soyuz rocket, at a cost to Shuttleworth of $10 million to $20 million.
A year ago, American investment manager Dennis Tito, 60, became the first person to pay for a trip to outer space. At the time, NASA objected strenuously to the Russian-led expedition, calling it a safety hazard and agreeing to it only as an exception.
Now it seems likely that the Russians will carry one or two people a year into space for several years to come, injecting tens of millions of dollars into Russia’s underfunded space program and developing expertise in space tourism.
NASA has backed off its criticisms, but is still not making space travel for non-astronauts a priority. There are no plans to sell empty seats on space shuttles, as the Russians are doing.
“It has been more than embarrassing to a lot of people in the aerospace industry and in private industry that the Russians have had to show America how to develop a free enterprise system in space,” said Robert Bigelow, founder of Bigelow Aerospace. Bigelow made a fortune owning Budget Suites of America and has committed $500 million of his own money to developing commercial infrastructure in space.
`We can do it better’
Bigelow likens the current situation to the Soviet Union’s launch of Sputnik, the first satellite, in October 1957, a challenge that spurred the U.S. to vigorously pursue an aggressive space program.
“We need to show not only that we can do it, but we can do it better,” the Las Vegas entrepreneur said.
Neither he nor other true believers are really talking about sending more millionaires into space. What they want is to foster a broader tourism market that can become a catalyst for companies to invest billions of dollars in opening the last great frontier.
With this investment will come extraordinary payoffs, space tourism promoters argue. The price tag of space flights will drop significantly as their frequency increases, making access to space easier and more affordable. And the enormous resources of space–energy, minerals, unique conditions for scientific research, recreational opportunities–will become more readily available, creating opportunities for countries to expand their economic clout beyond the confines of Earth.
Space legend argues case
“Space tourism is not just a cute idea,” former astronaut Buzz Aldrin told the House Subcommittee on Space and Aeronautics in June, in the first congressional hearings on the topic. “The country that leads in space tourism will reap a tremendous drop in launch costs and far greater vehicle reliability. Its exploration initiatives, and its military space activities, will dominate the 21st Century.”
Public interest in the prospect is high, according to a 1999 survey by the Space Transportation Association, an industry group in the Washington area. About 64 percent of people said they would be interested in taking a space trip if the cost were reasonable–akin to an adventure vacation such as a safari–and if the spaceship were safe and reliable.
Developing a vehicle that’s reusable is the key to the whole enterprise, said Frank Sietzen, president of the association.
NASA is exploring what it would take to build this type of craft through a $5 billion program known as the Space Launch Initiative. But Sietzen and other experts worry that NASA isn’t focusing on potential tourism or commercial markets in its design efforts, and that the government has not budgeted funds to build what could become the next generation of spaceships.
“This is going to need the government’s involvement, and it’s going to need to be a vehicle that’s smaller and more efficient to operate than what is currently being contemplated,” Sietzen said.
The X PRIZE
Others are looking to the private sector to come up with the next generation of spaceships.
Foremost among them is a 6-year-old effort known as the X PRIZE, which is sponsored by a St. Louis group that is offering $10 million for the first privately built spacecraft that can carry three people 62.5 miles into space, return to Earth and make the same trip two weeks later.
The goal is to jump-start the development of space tourism with a financial incentive, just as monetary prizes helped launch the aviation industry early in the 20th Century. More than 20 contenders have indicated their intent to participate.
Funding comes from the St. Louis business community, which hopes to restore the city’s once lustrous reputation as a center for the aerospace industry; FirstUSA, a credit card issuer that is tying product promotions into space-related themes; and private supporters.
How close is this to becoming a reality?
“We expect the first attempts in the second half of 2003 and we hope to have a winner in 2004,” said Peter Diamandis, a Harvard-trained physician and MIT-trained aerospace engineer who is chairman and president of the X PRIZE.
The biggest hurdles aren’t technological, Diamandis explained, they’re financial and regulatory. The most serious companies are spending more than $40 million on their efforts, which are seen as high-risk and with little immediate reward by potential investors. The companies are having a hard time raising capital.
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To go into space, privately owned reusable launch vehicles will need to be licensed by the Federal Aviation Administration. Chuck Kline, special assistant to the FAA’s associate administrator for commercial space transportation, said the agency was looking at licensing X PRIZE contestants as “experimental aircraft,” a designation that would relieve them of burdensome safety requirements. What type of insurance coverage they would need has not been determined.
The FAA is also in discussions with a handful of companies developing commercial spaceships that would carry passengers into suborbital space, about 60 miles above the Earth, Kline said.
Company expresses optimism
Meanwhile, Space Adventures, the U.S. company that arranged Shuttleworth’s and Tito’s space flights with the Russians, is so confident about the coming era of space tourism that it has taken more than 100 reservations for future flights on reusable launch vehicles, at $100,000 each.
Eric Anderson, the company’s president, estimates that thousands of people will begin taking advantage of the opportunity to circle the Earth 60 miles into space as early as 2005. Others think this timeline is wildly optimistic.
So far, the most advanced programs that Space Adventures offers customers–flights on supersonic jets, cosmonaut training, zero-gravity flight experiences and arrangements to travel to the International Space Station–are based out of Russia, which is eager to put its government space facilities to commercial use. None of the programs is available in the U.S.
That could change. Space Adventures is negotiating with five states to create a combined space port for suborbital flights and space entertainment complex that could give it a strong presence in the U.S.
It hopes to make an announcement later this year. And NASA could decide space tourism is a higher priority at any time.