Lt. Gov. Kathleen Kennedy Townsend would handily defeat U.S. Rep. Robert L. Ehrlich Jr. in a contest for Maryland governor, but her advantage is slipping as growing numbers of voters view her negatively, according to a new poll for The Sun.
The Maryland Poll shows that Townsend, a Democrat, would beat Republican Ehrlich by a healthy 15 percentage points if the election were held today, with 14 percent undecided.
But in a development certain to trouble her backers, Townsend’s support in that match decreased by 6 percentage points during the past year, and her favorable ratings declined even more.
Townsend’s drop parallels an erosion of good will for Gov. Parris N. Glendening, whose job performance rating is the lowest since The Sun began tracking it four years ago.
In one of the poll’s most striking results, Republican leaders are emerging as an increasingly attractive alternative as Townsend and Glendening slide in the eyes of the state’s voters and the Bush administration boasts unprecedented support.
Asked which party is better able to handle the most critical issues facing the state, Marylanders were just as likely to express confidence in Republicans as Democrats – despite Democrats’ nearly 2-1 edge in voter registration.
In addition to topping Ehrlich, Townsend would beat Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley by 22 percentage points in a potential Democratic primary, with 18 percent undecided. But Marylanders – particularly those in Baltimore – say they like O’Malley where he is: More voters want to see him finish his mayoral term than run for governor.
In a hypothetical matchup of Baltimore-region heavyweights, O’Malley would beat Ehrlich in a gubernatorial contest by 20 points, with 26 percent undecided. The mayor even trumps Ehrlich in the congressman’s Baltimore County base, and the poll shows O’Malley is better-known statewide.
Pollster Keith Haller, president of Bethesda-based Potomac Inc., which conducted the survey, said Townsend should be pleased with her position but aware of potential trouble ahead.
“There is bright sun shining on her candidacy today, but there are a few dark clouds on the horizon which should be taken seriously by her handlers,” Haller said.
“Her negatives have risen by 10 points in one year, despite very favorable and extensive media coverage,” he said. “In the past, Kathleen Kennedy Townsend has not been tarnished one iota by actions or issues that have impacted Glendening personally or the administration.
More Top Picks Best Travel Pillows For Long Flights
“But that time may be over. She’ll have to be more vigilant about separating herself from negative influences.”
Glendening’s approval drop, Haller and others say, is attributable in part to recent publicity over his aborted candidacy for the $345,000-a-year position of state university system chancellor.
Ethics experts questioned the propriety of the governor seeking a job from the University System of Maryland’s Board of Regents after appointing every member of that board. The governor was forced to announce last month that he would not seek the job.
“The heavy coverage, during November and December, led to his numbers fluctuating,” said John Bambacus, head of the political science department at Frostburg State University. “I just didn’t anticipate the firestorm that took place. I thought it would be a one- or two-day story. It obviously had legs, for legitimate reasons.”
The governor also may have alienated some voters through a legislative redistricting proposal that would remove representation from the Baltimore region.
Edna Silva, 81, of Monkton, a retired benefits counselor for the Veterans Administration, has been a loyal Democrat and voted for Glendening twice. But he and Townsend have disappointed her. She hasn’t noticed the fruits of their administration, she said, and she’s annoyed that Glendening sought the chancellor’s position.
As for Townsend, “I resent that she didn’t take care of that school with troubled kids in it,” she said, referring to guard-on-inmate violence at some state “boot camps” for youth offenders – programs for which she claimed responsibility.
“Before I always wanted to vote Democrat, but now I’d vote Republican,” Silva said, in large part because of how impressed she has been with Bush’s performance.
Glendening said yesterday that he’s not alarmed by the recent drop in his voter approval. At one point during his first term – after being battered by a pension scandal in Prince George’s County where he had been county executive – he was considered the most unpopular governor in the country.
“We’ve been fighting the controversial battles for what matters for Marylanders. When you do that, you always get your ups and downs and I’ve had them in my career,” the governor said through a spokesman. “But what matters in the end is that you do the right thing. And we’re doing that.”
Although still 11 months away, the 2002 governor’s race is slowly coming into focus even without formally announced candidates.
Townsend has raised about $6 million during the past three years, and her cash edge, name recognition and incumbency status has scared away potential rivals. Montgomery County Executive Douglas M. Duncan eschewed the race for a re-election bid last fall, and Baltimore County Executive C.A. Dutch Ruppersberger is more inclined to run for Congress.
If Townsend faces a primary challenge, it would most likely come from O’Malley, who has been critical of her leadership and crime-fighting programs. Although many think O’Malley would make a good governor, the majority of voters in the Baltimore region want him to keep his current job.
Postal worker Stephen Watson, 59, is one of the 67 percent of city voters who say O’Malley should remain as mayor. Watson saw crime increase in his neighborhood after nearby housing projects were razed. “But now, with the police and the new commissioner, they’ve kind of put a lid on it,” he said.
He credits O’Malley for the improvements. “If you’ve got a good mayor, why let him go? I guess that’s a little selfish, but that’s the way I look at it,” he said.
O’Malley would not comment last night on the poll and has not said whether he will seek another office. But his spokesman Steve Kearney said yesterday that the mayor’s popularity comes from both solid achievement and style.
“People appreciate the fact that he takes straightforward position on issues and isn’t afraid to speak his mind,” Kearney said. “If you ask him a direct question, you get a direct answer.”
The poll – of 800 registered voters statewide, which was conducted Jan. 2-4 and has a 3.5 percent margin of error – indicates that Ehrlich remains the GOP’s best hope for governor.
He said in an interview yesterday that the survey numbers were the highest he’d ever gotten. “It shows nice momentum, and it shows people are ready for a change in a one-party state,” the congressman said. “Townsend continues to hover at 50 percent, and that’s not real good for an eight-year incumbent. And as you know, we haven’t started campaigning.”
Still, Townsend enjoys sizable advantages that would be difficult for Ehrlich or O’Malley to overcome.
African-American voters overwhelmingly favor the daughter of the late Robert F. Kennedy, a civil rights and anti-poverty activist.
Townsend gets about the same number of white votes statewide as Ehrlich. But she would garner 90 percent of black votes, compared with 2 percent for the congressman.
Black voters make up more than a quarter of the state electorate and dominate politics in Baltimore and Prince George’s County, two of the state’s four largest jurisdictions. In Baltimore, Townsend out-polls Ehrlich 72 percent to 23 percent, with 6 percent undecided. In Prince George’s, she holds a 71 percent to 11 percent advantage, with 18 percent undecided.
Additionally, Townsend holds a commanding 55 percent to 23 percent lead in Montgomery, the state’s most populous county.
“I think she knows her business,” Janice Forman, 68, of Gaithersburg said of Townsend. As family members struggle with their daily commutes, “I like that she’s going to reconsider the inter-county connector,” she said, referring to a Washington-area transportation issue that the next governor will have to address. “And I think she’s been good on crime.”
Although she has a favorable impression of O’Malley, Forman, a retired Hecht’s employee, said, “I think he needs a little bit more experience under his belt.”
Townsend would not respond to the results. “The lieutenant governor is very appreciative of the strong showing of support,” said her chief of staff, Alan H. Fleischmann, “but she does not comment on polls, and is focused on her work during the legislative session.”
Marylanders feel differently about their governor depending on where they live. In the Baltimore region, more voters feel he has done a poor job than approve of his performance (46 percent to 41 percent). But in the Washington area, voters like his work: 56 percent say he is doing a good job vs. 28 percent who disapprove.
More Top Picks Best Rolling Tool Bags For Contractors
O’Malley and Comptroller William Donald Schaefer, the former governor, appear to be the state’s two most popular politicians.
Schaefer had the highest favorable rating of any political figure surveyed, with 60 percent saying they liked him, and 27 percent with a negative view.
Attorney General J. Joseph Curran Jr., who is facing re-election this year, is generally well-regarded by voters. Thirty-one percent said they had a favorable impression of him compared with 8 percent who said they did not like him.
Prince George’s County Executive Wayne K. Curry, who cannot seek re-election and is contemplating another office, was viewed favorably by 23 percent and unfavorably by 12 percent.