India and Pakistan put missiles on alert and dispatched more troops to their 1,800-mile border Wednesday, but U.S. officials said they did not believe the two nuclear-armed antagonists were on the brink of war.
Secretary of State Colin Powell twice telephoned Indian Foreign Minister Jaswant Singh and Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf on Wednesday to try to persuade both sides to cool tensions that have increased since terrorists staged a bloody suicide attack on India’s parliament two weeks ago.
Powell also formally designated as terrorist organizations two Pakistani-based groups that India alleges were behind the parliament assault, making it illegal for people in the United States to provide them material support.
“We are concerned about the developments on the border” between India and Pakistan, said a State Department official, “because we are seeing an escalation of tensions. But we don’t see either country on the brink of going to war at this point.”
The mountainous frontier in the disputed Kashmir region was relatively calm Wednesday after days of gunfire exchanges, and diplomatic gestures on both sides seemed to be gaining ground. India’s Cabinet committee on security met to consider “further diplomatic offensives,” Singh said, but no decision is expected until Thursday.
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Those steps could include a ban on Pakistani airline flights to India, abrogation of water and trade treaties, and downsizing of embassies. India recalled its ambassador to Pakistan and expelled a Pakistani diplomat in New Delhi but has stopped short of breaking diplomatic relations.
Meanwhile, Pakistan said it would move only a “bare minimum” of its forces to the border and wanted to resolve the situation through peaceful means. On Tuesday, Musharraf criticized Muslim militants in Pakistan for undermining Islam, remarks that U.S. officials hoped were a prelude to a broad government crackdown on the terrorist groups.
Nevertheless, world leaders were mindful that the two nuclear powers have fought three wars since their violent division at independence from Britain in 1947. UN Secretary General Kofi Annan wrote separate letters to Musharraf and Indian Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, urging them to “avoid escalating tensions and further statements that could aggravate the situation between both countries,” according to a UN spokesman.
Powell’s decision to add Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, two Pakistan-based groups, to the U.S. list of 39 other foreign terrorist organizations placed even more pressure on Musharraf to act against them.
India has accused Pakistan’s intelligence service of directing the two groups, which are fighting to remove the Muslim-dominated Kashmir region of the Himalayas from Indian control. India alleges the groups staged the attack against the parliament in which 14 people died, although Pakistan has demanded proof.
Powell criticizes extremists
“These groups, which claim to be supporting the people of Kashmir, have conducted numerous terrorist attacks in India and Pakistan,” Powell said in a statement, specifically referring to the parliament attack and an earlier terrorist assault against the Srinagar State Legislative Assembly.
“The Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, and their ilk seek to assault democracy, undermine peace and stability in South Asia, and destroy relations between India and Pakistan,” Powell said.
Pakistan sits at the fulcrum of the U.S.-led coalition against terrorism, which means the United States must tread a delicate line as it seeks to ease tensions between the two South Asian rivals.
Before Sept. 11, Pakistan was the main supporter of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, but Musharraf radically realigned his military and security services to assist the U.S. in ousting the Muslim fundamentalists from power. More than 60,000 Pakistani personnel are playing a key role in securing potential escape routes from Afghanistan and hunting Taliban and Al Qaeda fighters.
Now, after the attack on India’s parliament, the U.S. is pressuring Musharraf to go after the anti-Indian Islamic extremist groups inside Pakistan as well–a crackdown that could pose domestic political perils for the Pakistani president if he is seen as faltering in his support for Kashmiri independence from India.
Already the crackdown has kindled violent reaction by radicals. Last Friday, a day after Pakistan’s powerful interior minister bluntly told an anti-terrorism conference, “We cannot leave the country in the hands of some illiterate mullahs,” unknown terrorists gunned down the minister’s brother in the streets of Karachi.
Nevertheless, Musharraf is pressing ahead, U.S. officials note, by freezing the assets of Lashkar and detaining the leader of Jaish this week. Pakistani officials also arrested 30 Jaish militants on Wednesday.
“Musharraf has a very clear idea that these two groups pose a threat to Pakistan,” said the State Department official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. “He’s acting in Pakistan’s interest.”
Although India has criticized Pakistan’s actions so far as insufficient, U.S. officials hope that India will respond in kind by avoiding provocative actions, such as a military strike against Pakistani militants in Kashmir.
Military brinkmanship
Musharraf warned New Delhi that Pakistan’s armed forces were ready “for any challenge” and put his nation’s medium-range Chinese-made missiles on alert. For its part, India flew repeated air force sorties near the border and announced that its own medium-range missiles “are in position.”
The missile systems of both countries can be used to deliver nuclear warheads, although it is not known whether either side has actually deployed such arms.
What is clear is that the military brinkmanship between the two nations poses a real danger of miscalculation by either side, U.S. officials note.
“It is critically important there be a lessening of tensions between India and Pakistan,” said State Department spokesman Phillip Reeker.
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Pakistan, India ready to fight for Kashmir
While Pakistan and India have been fighting for control of the Kashmir region for 54 years, a recent attack on India’s parliament has sparked new border skirmishes.
TIMELINE OF KASHMIR CONFLICT
August 1947: India and Pakistan gain independence from Britain. Kashmir is given the option of acceding to India or Pakistan.
October 1947: India and Pakistan go to war after Kashmir decides to accede to India.
January 1949: After the United Nations steps in, both countries withdraw troops behind a mutually agreed cease-fire line.
September 1965: War breaks out over Kashmir as India blames Pakistan insurgency. The war ends when both countries agree to stick to the cease-fire line.
December 1971: Heavy fighting breaks out in Kashmir during India and Pakistan’s war over Bangladesh.
July 1972: After another cease-fire ordered by the UN, both sides agree to the line of control of Kashmir, almost identical to the 1949 cease-fire line.
January 1990: Indian army opens fire in Kashmir. More than 25,000 are reported killed in incidents over the next 9 years.
May 1999: Fighting breaks out when Pakistan crosses the Line of Control. Despite several attempts at peace, skirmishes continue along the Line of Control.
Oct. 2, 2001: A car bomb kills 40 people in Kashmir. A Pakistan-based groups takes responsibility.
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Dec. 13, 2001: A suicide attack on India’s parliament in New Delhi leaves 14 people dead. India blames two terrorist groups based in Pakistan.
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COMPARISON OF MILITARY FORCES AND ARSENALS
India Pakistan
TROOPS
Active 1,303,000 612,000
Reserves 535,000 513,000
ARTILLERY
Tanks 3,504 2,285
AIRCRAFT
Helicopters 266 143
Combat aircraft 811 353
SHIPS
Submarines 16 10
Aircraft carriers 1 0
Destroyers 8 0
NUCLEAR
Weapons 50+ 24-48
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Sources: International Institute for Strategic Studies, Federation of American Scientists, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, The World Almanac
baiduhai/David Constantine, Phil Geib