The Illinois State Police used flawed population estimates last year that
caused the agency to report inaccurate crime rates for dozens of communities
statewide, officials acknowledged Tuesday.
The flawed 1999 crime rates made some places–like those patrolled by
McHenry and Kane County sheriffs’ offices–appear safer, and others–like the
cities of Chicago, Berwyn and Cicero–appear more dangerous than they actually
are, state police officials said.
The errors were discovered when state police received this year’s U.S.
Census Bureau data to compile crime statistics for 2000, due to be released
Sunday. The discovery has prompted the agency to forgo providing year-to-year
crime rate comparisons–the first time such data will not be generated for
Illinois communities since the state police began issuing such reports in
1974.
Despite the state’s recognition of faulty crime rates, there is no dispute
that crime has been steadily declining for the last decade.
For its 1999 report, the state relied on population estimates generated by
the Census Bureau to fill the gap between the national head counts taken in
1990 and 2000. When the actual 2000 data were released in March by census
officials, it became clear that the estimates had significantly understated
the size of many communities, particularly where there are large numbers of
minorities.
The state police defended their calculations. “We’re only the repository
for information,” said Capt. Dave Sanders, state police spokesman. “We didn’t
come up with the population numbers. Those were provided by the U.S. Census
and the jurisdictions.”
The 2000 census figures have touched off a re-examination of crime rates
across the nation, from the tiniest villages to the U.S. Department of
Justice, which is wrestling with criticisms that historically, crime rates
have been based on flawed population estimates.
Crime statistics are used by a multitude of state and federal agencies to
secure law-enforcement funding, and mayors have used crime rates as a report
card to entice businesses and families to move to their communities. Even a
slight variation in reported crime rates can influence public perceptions of
where to live or which candidate to back in an election.
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Generally, there are two ways to view crime statistics. One is to examine
the number of crimes reported to police from year to year. The second
way–considered a more meaningful measure of crime’s impact on a community–is
to calculate how many crimes occur per capita, which is called the crime rate.
The state police’s 1999 report underestimated Chicago’s population for that
year by tens of thousands of residents, which produced a higher crime rate
than the city deserved, according to a Tribune analysis of the data.
“The city is safe. Our crime numbers were down. They’re down even lower
now. So, we are doing our job,” said Chicago Police Department spokesman Pat
Camden.
Before the state police release their annual reports, they provide
population and crime statistics to local jurisdictions, which have up to six
months to review the data and make corrections. Apparently, only a few
objected to the 1999 data, state police said.
Police commanders in Elgin said Tuesday that they had submitted updated
population figures that the state police failed to include in their report.
Because of that omission, Elgin’s crime rate appeared higher than it actually
was.
“There are going to be discrepancies,” said Elgin police Lt. Scott Davis
(the name as published has been corrected in this text). “That’s the nature of
government…. I don’t think there’s any malice.”
Most police agencies said they believe the mistakes were unintentional.
Sheriff David Madigan of Champaign County, where the crime rate was overstated
last year, chided the state police, saying, “Hell, they never could add. You
get those fellows off of chipped roads and they get confused.”
In Cicero, where 1999’s crime rate appears higher because of flawed
population numbers, police officials on Tuesday voiced concerns about the
potential economic impact.
In 1999, the state reported Cicero’s estimated population at 70,344. But
that total most likely was closer to the verified U.S. census count of 85,616.
“It gives people the wrong impression that this is not a desirable place to
live. It could make it so that people may not want to move here or businesses
locate here,” said Anthony Iniquez, Cicero’s deputy police superintendent.
State police officials acknowledged that the population estimates often did
not account for annexations that rapidly changed the borders–and in turn
affected the crime rates–of dozens of municipalities.
In Palatine, for example, the population has risen rapidly through
annexations, which absorbed 8,000 new residents last year–a hefty 12 percent
increase in population. But that increase was not captured in the state’s 1999
estimate.
As a result, Palatine’s crime rate was higher than it should have been.
Conversely, residents living in new areas of Palatine were counted as
residents of unincorporated Cook County, which resulted in a lower crime rate
assigned to the Cook County sheriff’s office, which patrols those areas.
In McHenry County, where the population has ballooned during the last
decade–making its 42 percent growth among the biggest statewide–officials
said they have become accustomed to errors. Because of McHenry’s population
growth, even county officials said they have discounted the state’s
publication of crime rate rankings.
Census data shows the county has 260,077 residents. Because there was no
accurate way to gauge the 1999 population, the corresponding crime rate will
always be a guess.
As a result, McHenry County State’s Atty. Gary Pack said county officials
focus on raw numbers of reported crimes to gauge trends and plan enforcement
strategies.
“If you have one murder one year, and one more the next year, your murder
rate goes up 100 percent,” Pack said. “We just go by what we feel is actually
going on.”
Tribune staff reporters Mickey Ciokajlo and Ruth Igoe contributed to
this report. This story contains corrected material, published July 12, 2001.