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A Northwestern fan is, by definition, an optimist.

So if you have even one purple garment in your closet, you have little doubt that Northwestern is headed back to the Rose Bowl this magical season. All it takes is two Wildcat victories and a Purdue loss. The only question is whether the Boilermakers will stumble against Michigan State this weekend or Indiana the next.

Looking for reasons to believe in the last-place Spartans, who were embarrassed 52-28 at Purdue last year? Forget about the Michigan State offense, which starts a true freshman quarterback and would have trouble scoring against tackling dummies.

Northwestern’s best hope rests with Michigan State’s defense. That’s the same unit Northwestern shredded for 37 points Sept. 30. It’s a unit that, on paper at least, appears overmatched against quarterback Drew Brees and the Boilermaker aerial circus.

“Certainly, we struggled to defend Northwestern,” Michigan State coach Bobby Williams said Tuesday. “Seeing what they’ve done over the last few weeks, maybe we didn’t do that badly.”

Michigan State’s defense has matured since the Northwestern loss. The Spartans shut down Michigan, which has the most weapons in the conference, in a 14-0 loss in Ann Arbor. And in last week’s 27-13 loss at Ohio State, two Buckeye touchdowns came on drives of 15 and 17 yards. The Buckeyes scored their third touchdown on a fumble return.

Ohio State coach John Cooper called the Spartans “one of the top defensive teams that we’ve faced all year.”

Conference of quarterbacks: There was a time when the Big Ten stable was filled with plow-horse running backs. But any doubt that the league belongs to quarterbacks was dispelled Saturday.

Five Big Ten quarterbacks gained at least 300 yards of total offense and a sixth came within a buttonhook pass of that plateau. Zak Kustok gained 377 yards for Northwestern; Rashard Casey gained 369 for Penn State; Antwaan Randle El gained 339 for Indiana; Brooks Bollinger gained 331 for Wisconsin; and Drew Henson gained 300 for Michigan. Iowa’s Kyle McCann gained 281 for Iowa.

Those numbers might not seem mind-boggling by today’s standards. But consider that Michigan legend Tom Harmon led the Big Ten with 636 total yards in 1940. And he did it in four games.

Feeling blue: Anthony Thomas has been portrayed as a goat for fumbling to set up Northwestern’s winning score in Saturday’s 54-51 thriller at Ryan Field. If it’s any help, Thomas isn’t the first star Big Ten back to drop the ball in a tight spot.

Eddie George, then an Ohio State freshman, fumbled twice on the goal line against Illinois. One was returned for a touchdown and another set up the winning field goal. Ron Dayne was a Wisconsin freshman when his late fumble led to a Northwestern victory in Madison. Both George and Dayne recovered from those early disasters to win the Heisman Trophy.

Sidelines: There were a lot of smiles around Schembechler Hall, Michigan’s football headquarters, when former Wolverine coach Gary Moeller was named Detroit Lions head coach Monday.

Though he went out on an ugly note in the spring of 1995, Moeller still has many friends in Michigan’s athletic department. Michigan fans savaged Moeller for losing four games each of his last two seasons, but few recall that he led the Maize and Blue to three Big Ten titles in five years as head coach.

Granted, the Big Ten was weaker then. But that’s still one more trophy than Michigan has won in the last five years–and it will be six unless Purdue and Northwestern both melt down in the next two weeks.